Southern California real estate hiring runs at half its usual pace

Southern California’s sluggish real estate market cut property-related hiring nearly in half in July.

My trusty spreadsheet found real estate employment in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties was 920,700 in July 2024. Two niches – project construction and building services – have staffs at post-Great Recession highs.

The Federal Reserve’s high interest rates, design to cool a once overheated economy, hit real estate hard. Yes, local property jobs were up 4,500 from June. Yet that’s slow when you know that since 2010, 8,700 jobs were added in July on average.

Next, peek back 12 months, and you see real estate work in the five counties grew locally by 10,400 positions. Still, that trails the 12-month hiring pace averaging 17,000 new workers since the Great Recession. That’s 39% less.

Also, July’s property job count is 10,400 jobs below the post 2009-employment peak set in July 2022, just after the Fed began its rate hikes. Note that many people who work in the real estate world are self-employed and are not tracked by traditional government job counts.

Contrast this hiring pattern to other industries across Southern California. Those bosses had 8.59 million workers – off 62,200 jobs in a month. Over 12 months, non-real estate jobs are up 142,300 over 12 months, or a 1.7% gain.

Don’t overlook real estate’s job-market clout, with its share of local employment at 9.7% in July 2024. The industry’s hiring equaled 7% of all new local jobs for the year, and 12% since 2010 and the end of the Great Recession.

By the slice

Here’s how key real estate-related employment niches in Southern California fared …

Trade construction specialists: 317,400 were employed by contractors – up 2,700 jobs from June and over 12 months, or a 0.9% gain. Average July had 4,440 job increase. This job niche is 2,300 below its post-Great Recession high (October 2023).

Project construction: 154,700 work at firms building homes to highways – a post-2009 high – up 1,100 for the month and up 3,300 over 12 months, or a 2.2% gain. Average July had 1,480 job increase.

Lending: 104,100 folks in various slices of credit work – flat for the month and off 2,000 over 12 months, or a 1.9% drop. Average July had 360 job increase. It’s 40,800 below post-Great Recession high (December 2012).

Real estate services: 143,600 people handling transactions – up 1,100 for the month and up 1,500 over 12 months, or a 1.1% gain. Average July had 1,700 job increase. It’s 3,600 below post-Great Recession high (December 2022).

Building supplies: 62,200 sellers of equipment and materials – off 400 for the month and over 12 months, or a 0.6% drop. Average July had 120 job loss. It’s 5,400 below post-Great Recession high (June 2021).

Building services: 138,700 jobs in commercial property operations – tying a post Great-Recession high – that’s flat for the month and up 5,300 over 12 months, or a 4% gain. Average July had 860 job increase.

Geographically speaking

Here is real estate employment’s breakdown, by metro area …

Los Angeles County: 348,800 real estate jobs – up 1,500 for the month and up 4,200 over 12 months, or a 1.2% one-year gain. An average July in 2015-19 had 2,600 hires. Jobs are -6,600 below post-Great Recession high (February 2020). Real estate equals 7.7% of all LA jobs.

Orange County: 217,700 real estate jobs – up 800 for the month and up 2,700 over 12 months, or a 1.3% one-year gain. An average July in 2015-19 had 1,900 hires. Jobs are -12,700 below post-Great Recession high (August 2018). Real estate equals 12.8% of all OC jobs.

Inland Empire: 184,500 real estate jobs – up 1,200 for the month and up 800 over 12 months, or a 0.4% one-year gain. An average July in 2015-19 had 1,300 hires. Jobs are -1,600 below post-Great Recession high (October 2023). Real estate equals 10.9% of all IE jobs.

San Diego County: 169,700 real estate jobs – a post-2009 high – up 1,000 for the month and up 2,700 over 12 months, or a 1.6% one-year gain. An average July in 2015-19 had 1,500 hires. Real estate equals 10.9% of all San Diego jobs.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com