‘Slow Horses’ Emmy upset? A ‘Shōgun’ vote-split could help British spy series win Best Drama Writing

Based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, “Shōgun” is the Emmy front-runner for Best Drama Writing for the penultimate episode of its first season, “Crimson Sky,” penned by series co-creator Rachel Kondo with Caillin Puente. But hold on a second. “Shōgun” has a second nomination in the category for its series premiere episode, “Anjin,” written by creators Kondo and Justin Marks. Pilots have often been popular with voters — “Mad Men,” “Homeland” and “The Handmaid’s Tale” won for their initial installments — so might that episode win instead? Or alternately, might the two episodes split votes enough that “Slow Horses” slides right past them for an upset victory?

Every Best Drama Writing winner for the last nine years was the lone nominee from its series. The last time a program won with multiple nominations was 2014, when “Breaking Bad” prevailed for “Ozymandias”over “Felina.” That’s a worrying sign for “Shōgun,” though most of our elite pundits think the choice is clear between the two episodes and “Crimson Sky” will take the prize. Betting on it to win are 11 out of 17 Expert journalists, eight out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 16 of our Top 24 Users and 16 of our All-Star Top 24.

But a substantial minority think “Slow Horses” will surprise for its episode “Negotiating with Tigers,” the third episode of its third season, written by series creator Will Smith — no, not that one. It’s backed by five Experts, two Editors, five Top Users and five All-Stars. The intricacies of tradecraft could appeal to the same kinds of voters who awarded “Homeland” (twice) and “The Americans” in this category.

But there’s something important to consider about the candidacy of “Slow Horses.” The nine nominations it received for its third season are the first nominations the show has ever received. It was completely blanked for seasons one and two, calling into question just how enthusiastic voters are about the show. That said, the Emmys have been late to the party before, lavishing programs like “Fleabag” and “Schitt’s Creek” with awards after completely ignoring them at the start.

We’d also be foolish to discount the only nominee in this category that’s already a proven winner. “The Crown” took this trophy in 2021 for the episode “War,” and now it’s nominated for “Ritz,” the eighth episode of the show’s sixth and final season, written by Meriel Sheibani-Clare and series creator Peter Morgan, who was also the winning writer in 2021. Now one Expert, one Editor and one Top User are predicting him to win again. So “Shōgun” doesn’t have this award all sewn up. It might be a close one.