Phillies series preview: Phight!
The Phillies are good, but the Royals could be catching them at a good time.
The Phillies have been in the NLCS in each of the last two seasons, making a trip to the World Series in 2023. They’re a big spender - their $246 million opening day payroll was fourth-largest with big stars like Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Zach Wheeler. Their 74-53 record is third-best in baseball. So you might think they are big favorites going into this series against the Royals.
Philadelphia Phillies (74-53) vs. Kansas City Royals (71-56) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Phillies: 4.82 runs scored/game (8th in MLB), 4.03 runs allowed/game (7th)
Royals: 4.87 runs scored/game (7th), 4.00 runs allowed/game (5th)
But the two teams are pretty evenly matched in run differential this year. The Royals are at +110 (third-best in baseball) while the Phillies are at +100. By Pythagorean expectation, the two teams should have nearly identical records (the Royals are actually slightly better at 75-52, compared to Philly’s 74-53).
The Phillies got off to a great start the first two months of the season, but hit a wall in the summer. They’ve lost 19 of 31 and have the worst record in the National League since the All-Star break. They dropped two of three in Atlanta over the weekend, scoring just six runs total. They are 32-30 on the road, and 33-29 against teams with a .500 record or better.
Only nine teams have hit more home runs than the Phillies, and they have the sixth-highest batting average. They average 5.3 runs-per-game at home, but just 4.3 on the road, and 59 percent of their home runs have come in Philadelphia.
Kyle Schwarber has smashed nine home runs in 31 games since the All-Star break. Alec Bohm put on a show in the Home Run Derby, but he has hit just two home runs in games since the break. Bryce Harper is hitting just .198/.257/.337 in his last 25 games. Brandon Marsh is hitting just .194/.280/.285 on the road. J.T. Realmuto is posting an OPS+ of 95, his worst since his rookie season in 2015. Rookie Weston Wilson hit for the cycle a week ago.
The Phillies have the sixth-most stolen bases and the second-best success rate. Bryson Stott trails only Maikel Garcia for highest stolen base success rate (25-of-27, 92 percent) for a player with at least 20 steals. The Phillies get strong defense from Brandon Marsh in the outfield and Bryson Stott at second, but shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Nick Castellanos are two of the worst defenders in baseball, by Defensive Runs Saved.
The Royals will likely avoid high-priced stars Wheeler and Nola. The Phillies have not yet announced starters for Saturday or Sunday, but will activate 2024 All-Star pitcher Ranger Suárez from the Injured List for Saturday’s game, while Sunday could be a bullpen game.
Taijuan Walker has been a high-priced disappointment for the Phillies after signing a four-year, $72 million deal last winter. He missed six weeks with a finger injury, and hasn’t made it to the fifth inning in either of his two starts since being activated. He has the third-highest home run rate for anyone with at least 50 innings pitched, and his groundball rate has significantly declined this year. He is trying to throw his splitter more, but he primarily relies on a sinker, that opponents are hitting .328 against this year.
Suárez had a terrific first half but has pitched just once since the All-Star game due to back issues. Over his last four starts, he has given up 18 runs in 21 innings. He has a reverse platoon split, with lefties hitting him better than righties this year. His 53 percent groundball rate is seventh-highest in baseball for anyone with 100 innings. He throws a sinker one-third of the time, with a curve, four-seamer, change up, and cutter.
Philly relievers have posted a 4.10 ERA - 11th-worst in baseball - but with the second-highest strikeout rate. They made some changes at the trade deadline, jettisoning Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto and bringing in Tanner Banks and former Angels closer Carlos Estévez. Estévez has gotten save opportunities lately, and overall he has converted 22 of 26 saves opportunities. Orion Kerkering is one of the hardest-throwers in baseball with a 97 mph fastball. Former Royals pitcher Matt Strahm was an All-Star this year, featuring a slider that opponents are hitting .148 against with a 33 percent whiff rate. Lefties are hitting just .136/.191/.254 against José Alvarado.
The Phillies are a very good team, but the Royals may be catching them at a good time. They don’t hit as well on the road, and their rotation is in flux right now. The Royals haven’t played well against winning teams this year, but this could be a chance to steal some wins.