A way-too-early look at the Lakers’ 2025-26 salary-cap outlook
The Lakers could have slightly more financial flexibility in the 2025-26 offseason, but not enough to make a major free-agent splash.
The Lakers had a disappointingly quiet offseason this summer in large part because of what they did last summer. After handing out multi-year deals to Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt and Austin Reaves — not to mention two-year veteran minimum deals with second-year player options to Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish — most of their roster spots were already filled by the time free agency began on June 30.
The good news is that Wood, Hayes and Reddish will all come off the Lakers’ books next offseason, as will D’Angelo Russell. The bad news is that the Lakers still don’t project to have meaningful financial flexibility unless LeBron James declines his $52.6 million player option.
If James picks up his player option and the Lakers pick up their $4.1 million team option on Jalen Hood-Schifino, they’ll have 11 players under contract for nearly $182 million. Even if the salary cap goes up by the full 10 percent that it’s allowed and expected to, it will be roughly $154.6 million. The luxury-tax line projects to be $187.9 million, the first apron projects to be $195.9 million and the second apron projects to be $207.8 million.
Barring drastic changes between now and next summer, the second apron doesn’t loom as a major concern for the Lakers in 2025-26. However, they’d be less than $14 million below the first apron if James picks up his player option and they pick up their team option on Hood-Schifino. A minimum salary for anyone with two or more years of NBA experience projects to be nearly $2.3 million, so just rounding out the roster with four players on minimum deals would put the Lakers less than $5 million below the first apron.
Teams that exceed the first apron aren’t allowed to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which projects to be $14.1 million in 2025-26, or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception. Unless the Lakers salary-dump Vincent or Vanderbilt, they won’t have enough room under the first apron to maintain access to the NTMLE. They should be able to use the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception if they don’t re-sign Russell, but it’s hard to imagine that being the difference between legitimate championship contention and another play-in berth.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s still plenty of time for the Lakers to change their outlook in 2025-26.
Between Russell, Hachimura, Vincent and Vanderbilt, the Lakers have plenty of mid-sized contracts that they can use as salary ballast in trades. Since they’re still (barely) under the second apron this season, they’re allowed to aggregate contracts. They can’t take back more salary than they send out, but they could easily combine enough contracts to land someone in the $25-30 million range.
The Lakers already owe their 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta — a pick originally owed to New Orleans that was traded to the Hawks in the Dejounte Murray trade — and their 2027 first-round pick to Utah, but they can trade their 2029 and 2031 first-rounders this year as well as 2026, 2028 and 2030 pick swaps.
Once the 2025 draft gets underway, they’ll be allowed to trade a 2032 pick swap as well. That should give them plenty of draft ammunition to sweeten any deals.
The Detroit Pistons are the only team with any remaining cap space, so the Lakers will have to wait until next offseason if they’re hoping to salary-dump one of their larger contracts. Few teams project to have significant cap room in 2025, per Keith Smith of Spotrac, but the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, in particular, stand out as potential salary-dump destinations given where they are in their respective rebuilds.
It would likely cost draft capital to get them to absorb Hachimura, Vincent or Vanderbilt’s contract, but dumping any of them could give the Lakers access to the non-taxpayer MLE and/or the bi-annual exception next summer.
If the Lakers wind up re-signing Russell, all of this may be moot. That alone could push them near or above the second apron, which means they’d be running back this same core for a third straight year. Barring a surprise run to a championship this season, that seems like a non-starter.
But even if the Lakers let Russell walk in free agency next summer, their hands will still largely be tied by the contracts they handed out last offseason.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
You can follow Bryan on Twitter at @btoporek.