Scouting, Baseball Gods, Team Up To Laugh At Lottery
“If the A’s didn’t have bad luck, they wouldn’t have any luck at all.” The poor Oakland Athletics, the second worst team in MLB in 2022 and the worst in 2023, chose the wrong moment to turn to hot garbage — prior to 2022 you always drafted in reverse order of record, but here came a lottery full of balls whose names seemed to be “not Oakland”.
And so the A’s were given not the 2nd, but the 6th pick in the 2023 draft and then not the 1st, but the 4th selection in 2024. And we the fans griped, moaned, and shook our fists mightily at the clouds that listened, none of whom happened to be named Rob Manfred.
But the baseball gods were listening, and the A’s scouting department was hard at work. And while the scouting department has taken its knocks at times, by all accounts they nailed their 1st round picks these past 2 years and maybe have aced the 2024 draft in general.
Whether it’s the gods, the A’s scouts, or both let’s take a quick gander at how it has played out so far. With an emphasis on “so far” because obviously we have a long ways to go before hindsight is actually 20/20.
Jacob Wilson
Presumably there were 5 clear picks at the top of the 2023 draft and not surprisingly, the 5 teams picking ahead of Oakland chose those exact 5 players: Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Max Clark, Wyatt Langford, and Walter Jenkins.
With the 6th overall selection the A’s chose Jacob Wilson in a draft where absent the lottery they could have had anyone but Skenes. Skenes is in fact other-worldly, but so far Wilson has been the second best player at the front of the draft.
That’s not to denigrate the other 4 picked ahead of him, as Langford is already completing his first season in the big leagues and Crews was just called up to make his debut. It’s more that Wilson has been the 99th percentile outcome of his skill set so far, flashing gold glove caliber defense at SS and hitting better than anyone could have anticipated.
If you haven’t followed Wilson’s trajectory closely you will marvel at the stats:
2023: .318/.378/.455 for A+ Lansing with a 10.6% K rate
2024: .455/.473/.705 for AA Midland with an 10.9% K rate
.398/.454/.622 for AAA Las Vegas with a 3.7% K rate
That last stat is not a typo. At AAA Wilson has struck out 4 times in 108 plate appearances. Given how well he plays defense at a premium position, Wilson doesn’t have to win a batting title in order to be a star. If he shows even a little pop — that was the biggest question mark but so far he has answered those concerns with an exclamation point — a .280/.340/.420 hitting, slick fielding SS, is an All-Star.
Wilson’s defense, in fact, gives him upside that the 4 players drafted above him don’t enjoy. For example, Langford may only be batting .241/.310/.362 but he’s 21 and just getting his feet wet at the big league level. By all accounts he’s going to hit, but he’s also a LFer and so he will have a hit an awful lot in order to match the value of any “good hitting, great fielding” SS.
I don’t know if history will look back and see that Jacob Wilson was the player most worthy of being selected #2 in the draft, but so far? Kinda.
Nick Kurtz
The “boards” had Nick Kurtz around 7th for a draft where the A’s rightfully should have picked 1st but in fact got their opportunity at #4. Oakland insists that their 1.1 choice all along was Kurtz, meaning they would still have made him their selection over 2Bman Travis Bazanna (who went #1), SP Chase Burns, 3Bman/OFer Charlie Condon, 2Bman/SS JJ Wetherholt, and fellow 1Bman Jac Caglionone.
If you take the A’s scouting department at face value, they may as well have had the 1st overall selection — take that, baseball gods! But did the A’s know more than the pundits, more than their peers who grabbed Bazzana, Burns, and Condon instead of Kurtz?
So far, yes. The early returns are, of course, early, but in their maiden go-around as pros all the top draft picks who have played have struggled — except for Kurtz, who is already at AA and hasn’t missed a beat.
Kurtz’ single-A career at Stockton lasted only 7 games because he made a mockery of single-A pitching. In his 35 plate appearances he smacked 2 singles, 4 doubles, and 4 HRs, walked 10 times and got out on just 15 occasions. His batting line was .400/.571/.960.
Now at AA Midland, Kurtz is getting his bearings and is only 4 games in. But with 3 hits and 2 BBs in his first 15 PAs (12 AB), he has hardly been overwhelmed and appears to be on the fast track for a debut in the big leagues as soon as sometime in 2025. His 1B defense draws comparisons to another 6’5” A’s draftee, Matt Olson.
As for the others, check out their initial stats:
Bazzana (A+): .259/.412/.407 He’s walking a ton (16.9%), but also striking out a bit (27.7%) and has been only “fine” so far. Bazzana needs to hit a lot because his defense is considered only to be adequate.
Condon (A+): .196/.262/.339 It’s been a rough go for Condon, whose 32.8% K rate reflects 19 K against just 2 BB as he struggles to try to get over the “Mendoza line”.
Caglianone (A+): .236/.333/.382 As impressive as he was in the College World Series, Cags’ prowess has not yet shown up in pro ball. Even his 2 HR in 15 games are a bit deceiving, as one of those dingers came off of a position player at the end of a blowout.
Wetherholt (A+): .234/.383/.313 You have to appreciate the 13 BB against 7 K, but other than drawing walks Wetherholt hasn’t done much with just 3 extra base hits (1 HR, 2 doubles) in 19 games.
Burns, fellow pitcher Hagen Smith (#5 overall), and the much discussed Braden Montgomery, have not yet made their professional debuts.
None of which is to say that Kurtz will be the single prize of the draft, but at the moment it’s hard to argue with the A’s unique assessment that he was the one worthy of a 1.1 pick, rather than being a ‘reach’ at 1.4.
Kuroda-Grauer Power!
Meanwhile, let’s end with appreciation for how good Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (3rd round, 75th overall pick) has been. A “Wilson-lite” prospect whose bat-to-ball skills are elite if not “other-worldly” (Wilson) and whose SS defense is seen as “solid” if not spectacular (Wilson), Kuroda-Grauer has been playing a mean shortstop while hitting as well as anyone in the country.
I mean that quite literally. It’s hard to hit better than Kuroda-Grauer’s first month in pro ball for single-A Stockton. In 10 games, Kuroda-Grauer has 19 hits and 7 BB, batting .422 with a gaudy .509 OBP. His 5.8% K rate (3 K in 52 PA) might also remind you of someone...
OK, perhaps Kuroda-Grauer power isn’t the right phrase even though it makes for a nice rhyme. He doesn’t have an extra base hit yet, so there is room for improvement. But he’s another player whose development is exciting to be able to track going forward, in a draft the A’s are widely seen as having aced.
The caveat to all this? Small samples reign supreme, right down to Wilson’s 1 big league plate appearance. But at least so far, the sting of bad lottery luck has been overcome by what appears to be great scouting, and baseball god resolve, conspiring to realign the draft to the 1.2 and 1.1 success the A’s rightfully should enjoy.
Enjoy!