Fantasy Focus: Kirby Dach

Last season was full of promise for Kirby Dach but things went sideways in a hurry.  Now fully healthy and armed with an intriguing new potential winger, what should the Habs be expecting from him this coming season?

2023-24

I’m going to do something here that I hope I never have to do again when writing this series.  I’m going to talk about the preseason.

Dach was one of the bright spots for the Habs in training camp.  After an up-and-down first season with the Canadiens, he looked like a possible breakout candidate in September.  He and Juraj Slafkovsky had some intriguing chemistry and after Dach put up three points in four preseason games, it looked like Montreal might have the makings of a decent second line.  Things were looking up.

Unfortunately, that enthusiasm didn’t last long.  About four periods overall, in fact.  If you’re reading this article, you probably already know what happened next.  Jarred Tinordi knocked Dach into Chicago’s bench in the second game of the season on a hit that didn’t look all that dangerous.  Nevertheless, Dach tore his ACL and MCL and that was the end of his season.  All of a sudden, two years with the Canadiens and two years with significant injuries, continuing a concerning career trend.

Stats: 2 GP, 0-2-2, +2, 0 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 3 shots, 13:01 ATOI

4 Year Averages

(There’s no point in putting Dach’s two games from last season into the averages as they’ll skew the numbers.  So let’s use the ones from his first four seasons; the stats for 2019-20 and 2020-21 have been extrapolated to an 82-game rate.)

GP: 57
Goals: 9
Assists: 17
Points: 27
+/-: -6
PIMS: 30
PPG: 2
GWG: 1
Shots: 95

2024-25 Role

With the price they paid to get him from Chicago, it’s fair to say that the Habs envision Dach being part of the long-term solution at centre.  Accordingly, while there’s a possibility where he could line up on the wing on the second line with Alex Newhook at centre, that doesn’t seem too likely.  Instead, the more probable outcome is that Dach anchors the second line.

While there’s a case to be made that Slafkovsky should be put back with Dach with how good they looked in the preseason, I don’t think they’ll do that right away.  With how well the top line did in the second half last season, they should stick together at the start.  He should, however, have a big winger with a strong shot in newly-acquired Patrik Laine.  Beyond that, knowing Martin St. Louis’ tendency to tinker, the other winger spot could be one of those rotation positions where a bunch of players wind up getting a look.

When it comes to the power play, Dach quietly led Montreal in PP ATOI in 2022-23, logging 3:24 per game.  I could see him being the fourth forward on the top unit (with the top line) once again, although that average probably comes down with the second group projected to actually have a couple of decent options on it.

As for the penalty kill, Dach has played it in the past, more so in Chicago than in his first season with Montreal.  From a development standpoint, I’d like to see him get some shorthanded playing time.  However, coming off that significant of a knee injury and still having Christian Dvorak and Jake Evans in the fold (not to mention Nick Suzuki who also chips in), I think they’ll pass on him filling one of the spots, at least in the first half of the year.

Projected Stats

I wouldn’t fault anyone who suggested that Laine is the biggest wild card on Montreal’s forward group.  There’s a good case to make for that.  But I think there’s a better one for Dach.

You might recall that Dach didn’t spend much time at centre in his first season with the team; it was only after Sean Monahan went down that he played down the middle with any sort of regularity.  Can he handle that over a full season?  While faceoffs don’t matter to fans as much as coaches, can he win enough draws (or be insulated by a second centre on the line) to stick at centre?  That’s not so much a concern in most fantasy leagues except those with faceoffs as a category but it will matter to the coaches.

The other big question is how he’ll click with Laine or whichever winger drops from the first line (if Laine plays with Suzuki).  We saw Dach show some playmaking chops in his first season with the team and high-end shooters need high-end passers to set them up.  I’m not sure Dach is that (or will be that) but if he is, the Habs become a much deeper team capable of making things interesting a lot longer than they have been recently.  And if he’s not, they could very well still largely be a one-line team.  That’s a lot riding on Dach’s shoulders.

Your opinion on his ability to be that top playmaker or not will largely determine if he’s worth picking in a fantasy league.  With the injury history, he’s going to be a tempting under-the-radar candidate although leagues counting more than just points will see his stock drop as he’s not a volume shooter nor particularly physical (even by Montreal’s very generous standards).  But as far as sleeper picks go, he’s an intriguing one, as long as you’re willing to deal with the seemingly inevitable stint on injured reserve.

GP: 68
Goals: 14
Assists: 31
Points: 45
+/-: -8
PIMS: 52
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 129