Caleb Williams may be the quarterback the Bears cannot break

The Chicago Bears have been caught up in quarterback hype trains before. You don’t have to delve very far back in team history to see. Justin Fields was supposed to be a savior. Mitch Trubisky had all the tools to be the best quarterback in his draft class. Jay Cutler, well, you don’t trade two first round draft picks for a guy who’s just gonna become a parody of himself, right?

This has, predictably, led to disappointment for a franchise constantly searching for jet packs capable of catching up to the NFL’s aerial revolution. But Caleb Williams, this spring’s top overall draft pick and a gift from the woefully mismanaged Carolina Panthers, looks different.

these 2 goal-to-go plays from Caleb Williams

INSANE

the value of a mobile QB is unparalleled

this rookie is ridiculously special pic.twitter.com/HDG3jk0Bvn

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 17, 2024

It is, of course, foolish to read too heavily into preseason results. Williams has a vast wealth of talent but there’s no guarantee it will translate at a consistent level on Sundays. But, still…

Every angle of Caleb Williams’ jaw-dropping throw to Rome Odunze.

(via NFL) pic.twitter.com/dQOn0dIWtA

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) August 17, 2024

Welp, let’s talk about how Williams could be the quarterback not even the Chicago Bears can break.

The Bears are uniquely well suited for a rookie quarterback to take the reins

This wasn’t coincidence. This was the best case scenario for a team that made smart moves to make the best out of what it had.

It began in 2023 when they sold the top overall pick in that year’s draft to the Carolina Panthers for two first round picks, two second round picks and established wideout DJ Moore. General manager Ryan Poles didn’t need a quarterback with Justin Fields entering his third year in the league and still ripe with potential. What he needed was assets to fill out the roster around Fields — especially at wideout, where guys like Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown and Chase Claypool ranked among his top targets in 2022.

Fields failed to pan out, but the trade flourished. Moore continued to thrive despite underwhelming quarterback play. Darnell Wright, acquired with the 2023 first gleaned from Carolina, was an instant starter at right tackle with massive upside. Having extra draft fodder allowed a trade for Montez Sweat and the rookie contracts involved helped carve out room to extend Moore, cornerback Jaylon Johnson (we’ll get to this) and swing a trade for Keenan Allen.

Then came the real treat; the first overall pick in a draft loaded with talent. In came 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Williams.

Most first overall picks go to borderline hopeless situations in year one. Not Williams. He gets to throw to what may be the league’s best wideout trio in Moore, Allen and top 10 draft pick Rome Odunze — a man who made 50-50 deep throws a 75-25 proposition at Washington. His tight end is Cole Kmet, whose 1.63 yards per route run (YPRR) was a top eight mark. Poles even splurged to bring D’Andre Swift to the backfield despite already having a solid young RB1 in Khalil Herbert and a viable prospect behind him in Roschon Johnson.

This has all come together to build a tremendous launch pad for Williams, who also inherits a head coach that failed to make the most of Fields and now gets to prove he knows what *not* to do. Matt Eberflus tried to minimize Fields’ running tendencies in 2023, instead leaving him in the pocket while absorbing some truly horrendous sacks (135 in 40 games as a Bear).

But Eberflus recognized the flaws there, giving his young quarterback more freedom as his rushes per game rose from 7.8 to start the season to 11 over the final seven games — a 4-3 stretch that likely saved the coach’s job. In that stretch, Fields was less efficient as a passer (his rating dropped from 95.4 pre-midseason injury to 82.2) but had a bigger positive impact on the game (his expected points added rose from -0.054 to -0.009… not great, but still better!).

Does this mean we should trust the Bears coaching staff? I’m not quite convinced, but it’s a step in the right direction. But even if Eberflus and company struggle to get the offense on track early Chicago should still be in good shape.

The Bears defense was very, very good to finish 2023 and should remain that way

From Week 10 onward — the game after Chicago acquired Montez Sweat, thus allowing him a chance to gain his sea legs — the Bears gave up more than 20 points only once. They held opponents under 310 total yards in the majority of these games. They forced 19 turnovers; that’s a ridiculous 2.4 per game.

That last number may not be sustainable, but Chicago’s overall very good-ness should be.

The primary forces behind that rise return for 2024. Sweat had six sacks and 14 quarterback hits in his final eight games of 2023. Johnson held opposing quarterbacks to a ridiculous 50.9 passer rating when targeted — second-lowest of any cornerback to see at least 50 targets last fall, per Pro Football Reference. Tyrique Stevenson improved steadily as a rookie opposite Johnson and had nine passes defensed and three interceptions in his final five games of the year.

Tyrique Stevenson.. pic.twitter.com/vfnpzxqjYP

— Dave (@dave_bfr) December 31, 2023

Kyler Gordon had some growing pains in his second season but emerged as an upper crust defender in the slot. T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds helped fill the void in the middle of the field left by Roquan Smith. Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens, both 2023 Day 2 draft picks, should only get better as potential anchors along the team’s defensive line.

The 2024 draft, on top of delivering Williams and Odunze, also dropped a punter worthy of being a fourth round pick (Iowa breakout star Tory Taylor, which is somehow not hyperbole, go Hawks) and a sleeper pass rush prospect (Austin Booker) into the fold. All this should reduce the amount of heavy lifting a rookie quarterback has to perform.

***

It is, again, stupidly early to cast judgment on Caleb Williams’ NFL career. All we know at the dawn of the 2024 season is he’s looked special this preseason. This isn’t unfamiliar to Bears fans, but the supporting cast around him is.

Williams has been dropped into a lineup where both sides of the ball can thrive, even with average quarterback play. That doesn’t mean it will — there’s a certain degree of anxiety that comes with Eberflus’s prominent spot on the sideline — but there’s no doubt this Chicago team is put in a better position to exceed expectations than any over the last decade.