Spoiler Alert: Mariners vs. Rays Series Preview
The Mariners play host to the Rays to start this week.
The first series of the Dan Wilson era was a dramatic one, but the Mariners got things back on track with a series win over the Giants. Their upcoming schedule looks pretty soft over the next two weeks, too; they’ve got four series in a row against teams that are out of playoff contention. If the M’s are going to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, this is the window to try and gain some ground on Houston.
The Rays were surprisingly one of the most aggressive sellers at the trade deadline this year. They made the calculation that a soft reset of their roster would give them better success in the coming years than trying for a long-shot Wild Card chase this year. Even though they traded away Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, and a bunch of their relievers at the end of July, their roster is still plenty potent and they’re in position to play spoiler for a number of AL teams still in the playoff picture.
Even without Arozarena and Paredes anchoring the lineup, the Rays still have a bunch of familiar faces still providing production for them. Yandy Díaz has taken a pretty big step back this year after a fantastic two-year stretch where he posted a combined 155 wRC+. The power output that drove his career year in 2023 has disappeared this season and his walk rate has fallen to a career low. Tampa called up their top prospect Junior Caminero a few weeks ago and he blasted his first two home runs of the season over the weekend.
Probable Pitchers
[[insert table]]
From a previous series preview:
Ryan Pepiot was one of the headlining prospects the Rays received in the big Tyler Glasnow trade during the offseason. He had bounced between the majors and the minors and the rotation and the bullpen as a member of the Dodgers organization, but he’s been given the chance to fully develop as a starter with Tampa Bay. Beyond a decent fastball and beautiful changeup, he needed to develop a third or fourth pitch to give him another weapon to effectively work as a starter. He added a hard slider to his repertoire late last year and has increased the usage of that pitch to 22% this year. He’s also dabbled with a cutter and curveball at points this season, but neither has really stuck yet.
Pepiot held the Mariners to a single hit and a single run across 5.1 innings in his previous outing against them.
Back in 2022, the Rays worked their magic to convert Jeffrey Spring from a mediocre reliever into a frontline starter. He made 25 phenomenal starts for them that season with an elite 4.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio fueled by a much improved changeup and a pretty good sweeper. Unfortunately, he injured his elbow after just three starts last year and underwent Tommy John surgery, keeping him off the mound until July of this year. His return has been a bit of mixed bag; his fastball velocity still hasn’t returned to where it was back in 2022 and he’s been knocked around in three of his five starts so far.
Tyler Alexander spent the first five seasons of his career working as an up-and-down spot starter and long reliever for the Tigers. The Rays picked him up off waivers and he’s fulfilled that same role for Tampa Bay this year. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who has a deep repertoire and decent command, but the ceiling on that profile is pretty limited. The Rays haven’t been able to coax anything more out of him and he’s simply acted as an innings eater for their pitching staff.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners gained a half a game on the Astros after Houston split their four-game series against the Orioles last weekend. The ‘Stros have a pretty tough slate of games on the schedule this week: three on the road against the Phillies and four at home against the Royals.