Republican offensive risks backfiring with transgender friends, family

Former President Trump and other Republicans are casting Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as left-wing radicals whose administration would initiate a seismic cultural shift meant to undermine conservative values, especially when it comes to advancing protections for transgender Americans.

It’s a strategy meant to excite conservative voters and win over parts of the center, but surveys suggest it risks backfiring, with LGBTQ people and their allies using threats and misinformation spread as a rallying cry to drive voters to the polls for Democrats. 

In rallies and social media posts, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance, have seized on Harris’s ties to the progressive policies of the current administration and Walz’s long track record as an ardent supporter of gay and transgender rights. 

Trump during an appearance on “Fox and Friends” this month called the Democratic ticket of Harris and Walz “communist” and, while describing Walz’s ideology, said Walz is “heavy into transgender” in an apparent reference to new Minnesota laws that outlaw conversion therapy and protect seekers and providers of gender-affirming health care from prosecution by states with bans in effect. 

“Tampon Tim,” a Republican-led nickname for Walz, stems from a 2023 Minnesota law mandating free menstruation products in public school restrooms used by students in grades four through 12, regardless of gender. “What could be weirder than signing a bill requiring schools to stock tampons in boys’ bathrooms?” asks an Aug. 6 ad from Make America Great Again Inc., the primary super PAC supporting Trump. 

Trump and Vance have also pledged to enact policies if they are elected in November that directly target transgender Americans, including a federal law that recognizes only two genders, effectively ending legal recognition of trans people in the U.S. Additional policy proposals would prohibit transgender student-athletes from competing in accordance with their gender identity, outlaw gender-affirming care for minors and reinstate a ban on transgender people serving openly in the military, which Biden reversed in 2021. 

At a recent campaign stop in Michigan, Trump vowed to make it a felony for doctors to perform gender-affirming surgeries on minors without parental consent, falsely suggesting that youth under 18 can legally access transition-related care without their parents’ permission. 

“This is your Trump campaign mode, that is speaking viscerally to the Republican base and trying to paint a reality that does not necessarily exist to try to mobilize voters,” said Gabriele Magni, an assistant professor of political science at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

But Magni said the tactic may have an unintended consequence that could end up hurting Trump and helping his opponents. 

“If we take a look at surveys that ask voters what their priorities are, trans rights are usually not very high,” Magni said. “There is a group of voters for whom that is a very high priority, and it's not just transgender folks, not just trans voters, but it's also their families, whose lives have been impacted by the decisions made by different states in the last couple of years. These voters are highly motivated to show up.” 

A staggering 94 percent of LGBTQ voters surveyed by the LGBTQ media advocacy organization GLAAD in January, when President Biden was still the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said they are highly motivated to vote in November’s election, with 84 percent indicating they are “definitely” voting. More than half — 53 percent — said they would oppose a candidate who “speaks frequently about restricting access to health care and participation in sports for transgender youth.” 

Enthusiasm about the upcoming election has soared among transgender adults since Harris entered the race, according to a recent survey from FOLX Health, a digital LGBTQ health care service. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they are “hopeful” about the election’s outcome, in large part because they believe Harris stands a better chance than Biden of defeating Trump in November. 

“LGBT people are seeing that there is one party who is treating us like decent human beings, and there is another party who is putting a target on our backs, and that is highly motivating,” said Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen, executive director of Advocates for Trans Equality, a transgender rights group that has endorsed Harris. “LGBT people are now disproportionately turning out to vote, and to vote for Democrats as a party who has our back.” 

A survey of transgender Americans conducted by Heng-Lehtinen's group in 2020 and published in February found that trans people are more likely to be politically engaged, with more than 80 percent of voting eligible respondents reporting they were registered to vote in the 2020 presidential election. 

Seventy-five percent of voting eligible respondents said they cast a ballot that year, compared with 67 percent nationwide, the highest voter turnout of the 21 Century, according to the Census Bureau. 

“Transgender people, we know our lives are on the line. We know we're in the political crosshairs, so we're motivated to turn out,” said Heng-Lehtinen, the son of former Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.). “And remember, every trans person is a part of someone’s family, so for every one of these people who are more likely to be registered and more likely to turn out, there’s also a whole web of friends and family who are backing them up and are highly motivated because they know they have to protect this person.” 

While it represents a tiny fraction of the U.S. population — estimates range from 0.5 percent to around 1.6 percent — the political power of transgender Americans is growing.

A “Trans Folks for Harris” Zoom call organized by Advocates for Trans Equality raked in more than $26,000, Heng-Lehtinen said, and more than 50 transgender delegates voted at last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Seventeen percent of delegates identified as LGBTQ, according to convention officials. 

Democratic leaders in public statements and conversations on the convention floor promised to protect LGBTQ rights, though transgender issues were rarely talked about outright, and a trans speaker was notably absent from the stage. Anti-transgender rhetoric took on a much more prominent role during July’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where prominent GOP figures railed against trans peoples' pronouns and criticized the inclusion of transgender athletes in women’s sports. 

“Both parties have centered LGBTQ people this year — one for the better, one not so much,” said Kierra Johnson, president of the National LGBTQ Task Force Action Fund, an organization dedicated to building queer political power. 

“Ultimately, I think it is about instilling fear into people,” Johnson said of Trump and Republicans’ approach to LGBTQ issues. “If we can keep our eye on the prize and believe what they are telling us, then the American people ultimately will, I think, refute everything that's coming out of the Trump campaign.”