Can Emmy underdog ‘SNL’ upset ‘Last Week Tonight’ for Best Variety Scripted Series?

Only four shows were submitted to the Emmys for consideration in Best Variety Scripted Series, and the two nominees that emerged were “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” and “Saturday Night Live.” “Last Week Tonight” came out victorious in their last head-to-head match-up. Can underdog “SNL” exact revenge in 2024?

This is only the second time “Last Week Tonight” and “SNL” have battled each other for the top program award. Before last year when the television academy realigned the variety categories, “Last Week” would dominate the talk show race while “SNL” had the sketch comedy award on lock. But “Last Week” is no longer considered a talk show. It was slotted into the new scripted category.

And as of this writing “Last Week” is favored to win it again by a significant margin. It gets leading odds of 7/10 based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Among those betting on the topical HBO program are 12 out of 14 Expert journalists and all 11 Gold Derby Editors, plus majorities of our Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24. If we’re right, this would be the ninth win in a row for “Last Week.” “SNL,” however, is backed by two Experts and one Top User, so don’t count it out completely.

That said, “SNL’s” golden opportunity to end, or at least interrupt John Oliver‘s dynasty may be next year. Not only is the upcoming season a presidential election year, it’s also the show’s 50th anniversary, so we can probably expect headline-grabbing guests and special events to commemorate the occasion throughout the season. A political powder keg plus a historic TV milestone might be the combo the sketch series needs to top the urgency of Oliver’s informative comedy.