Why the Warriors might be right to bet on Jonathan Kuminga making a big leap

The Warriors didn’t make the blockbuster trade this offseason. Could that turn into a blessing?

After moving on from Klay Thompson, the Golden State Warriors offseason has been mired in one simple question: should the front office be willing to part with promising young players like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski for more proven pieces? The answer understandably has been “It depends.” The Warriors have clearly engaged in trade talks with several teams, most notably the Clippers for Paul George and Jazz for Lauri Markkanen, but ultimately have decided to pass on any deals, or had their best proposals rejected.

With trade rumors dying down, the Warriors seem to be rolling with their roster as currently constructed into the season. So, now we are left with trying to figure out what exactly Golden State has in its young players.

The most interesting at the moment, at least to me, is Kuminga. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Kuminga is slated to be a restricted free agent next offseason and is obviously hoping to secure a massive raise. However, to garner a max contract, he will likely need to take a significant step forward. But exactly how unprecedented of a leap does he need to make?

I decided to compare Kuminga’s third NBA season to the third year for some elite wings who seem to share some characteristics with the Warriors wing: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, and George.

I was admittedly surprised by how significantly Kuminga was ahead of the pack as a scorer. I used per 100 possessions numbers to normalize for different paces across different seasons, but even in standard per game or per 36 minute numbers, Kuminga was still toward the top of the pack. Not only was he scoring at a higher rate than these future All-Stars at this point in their career, he was also doing it with equal or better efficiency.

It’s not just about whether Kuminga will become a superstar, but — if he does — then how quickly? Well, the six players he stacks up quite well next to in the above table went on to average 20.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in their fourth NBA seasons. Four were named All-Stars, two won the Most Improved Player Award, and Leonard won Defensive Player of the Year. All six led their teams to the postseason.

If the Warriors could lock in that level of production from Kuminga for this upcoming season, they would take it in a heartbeat. It’s hard to feel like that is unattainable. Despite all the locker room tumult and inconsistent spot in the rotation last season, Kuminga still averaged roughly 16 points and 5 rebounds a game with an above-average team as a 21-year old.

It’s no secret that the 2023-24 season offered players a uniquely favorable offensive environment, which is a reasonable counterargument to Kuminga’s comparative productivity. However, while that may explain a portion of his significant scoring and efficiency advantage, the fact that his usage rate is the highest of the group suggests that his teammates were trusting him in a unique way.

There are many reasons to be skeptical of these early-career side-by-side comparisons. The thing that tends to separate stars from non-stars is their ability to continue improving when others normally plateau. So, to see if Year 3 is really early enough to spot a difference in development, I took a look at Kuminga’s Year 3 production compared to the Year 3 production of some current and former mid-level wings who are/were varying degrees of impact players: OG Anunoby, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges, Chandler Parsons, Tobias Harris, and Harrison Barnes.

There is undeniably a decent gap between the Year 3 production of this group compared to the superstars we started with. Kuminga’s offensive production far outpaces most players in this group, and it’s worth reiterating the unique development path that he’s had: despite the raw production, he still had the least playing time in Year 3 when compared to these players.

Covington, Bridges, and Parsons have the most comparable numbers, and would blend in amongst the stars. However, all three entered the league as older players with fairly developed offensive games, particularly as outside shooters. It’s not surprising that they would punch above their weight early on from a scoring and efficiency standpoint (for what it’s worth, this is something to watch with Podziemski). Harris is an exception, averaging 24.7 points per 100 possessions without any semblance of a consistent outside shot, and perhaps Harris is a low-end outcome for Kuminga to keep in mind, but he was also on a horrendous 23-59 Magic team that likely allowed him more space to rack up production above his talent.

So is it just that simple? Kuminga is on a superstar trajectory?

Of course not.

Each player follows their own unique development path, and it’s rarely that easy to predict. And it’s worth looking at Kuminga’s scoring efficiency as a 21-year old in Year 3. In addition to Kuminga, there have been a few other standout athletes who were top high school and draft prospects with impressive scoring ability, but faced questions about their outside shooting with similar levels of production.

I was surprised to find how closely Edwards, Barrett, Wiggins, and Kuminga’s Year-3 (age 21-season) production mirrored one another. Edwards was a more dynamic defender than Barrett and Wiggins, but there really was not that much separating these players at this point in their careers. The difference is that Wiggins regressed offensively, Barrett plateaued, and Edwards took another significant jump forward in Year 4 (he averaged 36.6 points per 100 possessions on more efficient shooting this past season).

Kuminga’s two-point scoring efficiency remains a great separator here. However, it’s worth noting that the Warriors system, particularly the spacing created by Thompson and Steph Curry, could be helping to inflate that efficiency. It’s not unusual for players on the Warriors to see their 2PT% take a significant dip in other environments (see Jordan Poole).

This is where we hit the truest limit of these kind of statistical exercises. What is the thing that has Edwards on this superstar trajectory while Wiggins and Barrett have been unable to escape the “disappointment” label? It’s largely intangible.

That unquantifiable factor is the best argument that the Warriors should have more aggressively dangled their chips (Kuminga, Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and picks) this offseason for a more bonafide star. No matter how much Kuminga’s early career may resemble that of a future All-Star, there is no better predictor of future production than what someone has done in the past.

Yet, as is the case with most philosophical team-building questions, it always depends. The Warriors (especially Jerry West) were right to refuse trading Thompson after the third year of his career for a 25-year old Kevin Love who had already earned three All-Star selections.

If Kuminga emerges as a true peer of players like Leonard, George, or even Siakam, these past couple years’ of trade rumors will make the Warriors look smart for their steadfast refusal. If he regresses, or even just plateaus as a solid secondary contributor, though, the Warriors will likely be an impact player short of true title contention in Curry’s waning prime.

Projection is even harder because there are few NBA players who have had the early-career trajectory of Kuminga. It’s rare enough for a lottery pick to be thrust on a championship contender with a generational player. Mix in the deemphasis on a young player’s development that comes from the desire for competition and you get the awkward carousel of optimism and concern that has followed him.

Despite all that, Kuminga is ultimately still a 21-year old wing with elite athleticism who has already proven capable of locking down superstar scorers at times, contributed in the postseason, and is coming off an efficient season where he tallied 16.4 points per game. Even as the roster around him went from a champion to a flawed and static rotation that needed to be carried by a legend, he managed to make clear improvements.

That combination is one I would bet on over and over again.

The Warriors hope that bet can pay off as early as this season.