Mike Lynch, Probability and the Cyber Industrial Complex

It began as a devastating, confined storm off the coast of Sicily, striking the luxury yacht Bayesian in the form of a devastating water column resembling a tornado.  Probability was inherent in the name (Thomas Bayes, mathematician and nonconformist theologian of the 18^th century, had been the first to use probability inductively) and improbability the nature of the accident.

It also led to rich speculation about the fate of those on the doomed vessel.  While most on the sunk yacht were saved (the eventual number totalled fifteen), a number of prominent figures initially went missing before being found.  They included British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his daughter, along with Morgan Stanley International Bank chairman, Jonathan Bloomer, and Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo.

Lynch, co-founder of the British data analytics firm Autonomy and co-founder and investor in the cybersecurity firm Darktrace, had been recently acquitted by a US federal jury of fifteen counts of fraud and conspiracy, along with his co-defendant Stephen Chamberlain, regarding Hewlett-Packard’s acquisition of Autonomy in 2011.  While the firm’s acquisition had cost a mighty US$11 billion, HP wrote off a stunning US$8.8 billion within 12 months, demanding an investigation into what it regarded as “serious accounting improprieties, disclosure failures and outright misrepresentations at Autonomy.”  Clifford Chance was instructed by Lynch to act for him following the write down of Autonomy’s value in November 2012, hence Morvillo’s presence.

Lynch had his fair share of unwanted excitement.  The US Department of Justice successfully secured his extradition, though failed to get a conviction.  The investor proved less fortunate in a 2022 civil suit in the UK, one he lost.

For all his legal travails, Lynch stayed busy. He founded Invoke Capital, which became the largest investor in the cybersecurity firm Darktrace.  Other companies featured in terms of funding targets for the company, among them Sophia Genetics, Featurespace and Luminance.

Darktrace, founded in 2013, has thrived in the thick soup of security establishment interests.  British prime ministers have fallen within its orbit of influence, so much so that David Cameron accompanied its CEO Nicole Egan on an official visit to Washington DC in January 2015 ahead of the opening of the company’s US headquarters.

Members of the UK signals intelligence agency GCHQ are said to have approached Lynch, who proceeded to broker a meeting that proved most profitable in packing Darktrace with former members of the UK and, eventually, US intelligence community.  The company boasts a veritable closet of former operatives on the books: MI5, MI6, CIA, the NSA, and FBI.  Co-founder Stephen Huxter, a notable official in MI5’s cyber defence team, became Darktrace’s managing director.

Other connections are also of interest in sketching the extensive reach of the cyber industrial complex.  This need not lend itself to a conspiratorial reading of power so much as the influence companies such as Darktrace wield in the field.  Take Alexander Arbuthnot, yet another cut and dried establishment figure whose private equity firm Vitruvian Partners found Darktrace worthy of receiving a multi-million-pound investment as part of a push into cybersecurity.

Fascinating as this is, such matters gather steam and huff on looking at Arbuthnot’s family ties.  Take Arbuthnot’s mother and Westminster chief magistrate, one Lady Emma Arbuthnot.  The magistrate presided over part of the lengthily cruel and prolonged extradition proceedings of Julian Assange, founder of WikiLeaks and hounded for alleged breaches of the US Espionage Act.  (Assange recently pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defence information under the Espionage Act of 1917.)  Any conflict of interest, actual or perceived, including her husband’s own links to the UK military community as former UK defence minister, were not declared during the legal circus.  Establishment members tend to regard themselves as above reproach.

With such a tight tangle of links, it took another coincidence to send the amateur sleuths on a feverish digital trawl for sauce and conspiracy.  On August 17, a few days prior to Lynch’s drowning, his co-defendant was struck while running in Cambridgeshire.  Chamberlain died in hospital from his injuries, with the driver, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, assisting at the scene with inquiries.

Reddit and the platform X duly caught fire with theories on the alleged role of hidden corporate actors, disgruntled US justice officials robbed of their quarry, and links to the intelligence community.  Chay Bowes, a blustery Irish businessman with an addiction to internet soapbox pontification, found himself obsessed with probabilities, wondering, “How could two of the statistically most charmed men alive meet tragic ends within two days of each other in the most improbable ways?”

A better line of reflection is considering the influence and power such corporations exercise in the cyber military-industrial complex.  In the realm of cyber policy, the line between public sector notions of security and defence, and the entrepreneurial pursuit of profit, have ceased to be meaningful.  In a fundamental sense, Lynch was vital to that blurring, the innovator as semi-divine.

Darktrace became an apotheosis of that phenomenon, retaining influence in the market despite a scandal spotted record.  It has, for instance, survived claims and investigations of sexual harassment.  (One of those accused at the company was the most appropriately named Randy Cheek, a sales chief based in the San Francisco office.)

In 2023, its chief executive Poppy Gustafsson fended off a stinging report by the US-hedge fund Quintessential Capital Management (QCM) alleging questionable sales and accounting practices intended to drive up the value of the company before it was floated on the London Stock Exchange in 2021.  This sounded rather typical and seemed eerily reminiscent of the Autonomy affair.  “After a careful analysis,” QCM reported, “we are deeply sceptical about the validity of Darktrace’s financial statements and fear that sales, margins and growth rates may be overstated and close to sharp correction.”

QCM’s efforts did no lasting damage.  In April this year, it was revealed that Darktrace would be purchased by US private equity firm Thoma Bravo for the punchy sum of US$5.32 billion.  The Darktrace board was bullish about the deal, telling investors that its “operating and financial achievements have not been reflected commensurately in its valuation, with shares trading at a significant discount to its global peer group”.  If things sour on this one, Thoma Bravo will only have itself to blame, given the collapse of takeover talks it had with the company in 2022.  Irrespective of any anticipated sketchiness, Lynch’s troubled legacy regarding data-driven technology and its relation to the state will remain.

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