Astros series preview: A fading dynasty?
The Astros are still very good - but for how much longer?
The Astros have had a mini-dynasty lately. They have reached the American League Championship Series in each of the last seven years, winning four pennants and two championships. Notwithstanding their sign-stealing scandal, they have been a franchise to emulate with a record of success any other organization would aspire to.
But is it coming to an end? The Astros fired GM James Click after their championship in 2022, and their recent moves seem uncharacteristic for the organization - paying top dollar for players like relievers like Josh Hader and over-the-hill hitters like Jose Abreu. The Astros come into this series with a .534 winning percentage, on pace for their lowest win total since 2016.
Kansas City Royals (75-59) vs. Houston Astros (71-62) at Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Royals: 4.88 runs scored/game (6th in MLB), 4.10 runs allowed/game (8th)
Astros: 4.56 runs scored/game (12th), 3.98 runs allowed/game (4th)
The Astros dug a large hole for themselves to start the year, losing 20 of their first 30 games. They caught fire in June to climb back in the race and took over first place thanks to a huge Mariners collapse. They have won 16 of their last 26, but are coming off a tough 3-4 road trip in Baltimore and Philadelphia. They’re just 30-39 against teams with a winning record in baseball - only the Red Sox are worse among teams in contention.
Astros hitters put the ball in play with the fourth-lowest walk rate and the third-lowest strikeout rate. The team is hitting .261, second-best in baseball, with the tenth-most home runs. They play in cozy Minute Maid Park, but just 52 percent of their home runs come at home and their offensive numbers are only slightly better there than on the road.
Yordan Alvarez is third among all hitters in on-base percentage and seventh-in slugging percentage. Alvarez and Alex Bregman are both among the lowest 15 strikeout rates in baseball. Journeyman Ben Gamel is hitting .435 in seven games since joining the Astros.
Jose Altuve is hitting .352/.407/.508 against lefties. Yainer Diaz has a 50.2 percent groundball rate, tenth-highest among hitters, but is hitting .344/.363/.586 with 8 home runs over his last 31 games.
The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Sunday, but with Michael Lorenzen out with an injury, Alec Marsh seems like a good bet to get the call.
The Royals pounded Hunter Brown for nine runs in less than an inning of work back on April 11. He has pitched very well recently, with a 2.14 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break. He has the lowest hard-hit rate in baseball at 22 percent. He throws a 96 mph fastball with a cutter, sinker, knuckle curve, and a change up with a 30 percent whiff rate.
Framber Valdez has earned Cy Young votes the last two years, and is currently eighth in the American League in ERA and fourth in wins. He has a 2.73 ERA since the start of June, with opponents hitting just .208/.278/.298 against him in that time. He has the sixth-lowest home run rate among starters due to the highest groundball rate at 59.2 percent. He has a reverse split, with lefties hitting him slightly better than righties. The Royals have hit him well though - he has a 4.97 ERA against them in six career games.
Yusei Kikuchi was acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline and has a 2.89 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 28 innings over five starts with the Astros. The 33-year-old beat the Royals back in April when he was with Toronto, giving up two runs in six innings, but he has a career 5.80 ERA against the Royals in eight starts. Lefties are hitting just .207/.258/.342 against him. He still throws 95 mph but has a very effective slider with a 29.7 percent whiff rate.
Ronel Blanco has reached six innings pitched in a start just once in his last seven starts. He has the highest walk rate among all qualified starters. He has outperformed his FIP with his ERA more than any pitcher except Andrew Abbott of the Reds. Opposing hitters are batting just .184 against his slider with a 32.9 percent whiff rate, and it is one of the best in baseball.
Astros relievers have a 3.53 ERA, fifth-best in baseball, but in the last 30 days the have been the second-best in baseball at 2.57. Only two bullpens allow fewer inherited runners to score. Closer Josh Hader has the fifth-most saves in baseball at 28, and has blown just one save all season. He has the third-highest strikeout rate among relievers, hasn’t given up an earned run since July 29 and opponents are hitting just .059 against him this month. Héctor Neris rejoined the Astros after being let go by the Cubs due to having the 12th-highest walk rate among relievers. Tayler Scott has been a nice find in the pen, with opponents hitting just .117 against his 92 mph four-seamer. Lefties are hitting just .147/.237/.147 against rookie Bryan King.
The Royals defeated the Astros in a terrific post-season series on their way to a championship in 2015. They may have to get through the Astros against this fall if they want to make another run. They swept them once this year, back in April, but the Astros are trying to stave off the end of their run as much as they can.