Emmy odds say ‘The Daily Show’ will win Best Variety Talk Series again, but the race may be closer than we think

“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” surprised many Emmy pundits by winning the 2023 Emmy for Best Variety Talk Series, and now “The Daily Show” sans Trevor Noah is the front-runner to win again according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets in our predictions center. But how close is the race exactly? Does “Daily Show” win it in a walk, or do its rivals have an opportunity to upset?

As of this writing “The Daily Show” leads with odds of 23/10 and 15 out of 17 Expert journalists predicting it to win. The topical Comedy Central series is also backed by all 11 Gold Derby Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users and 22 of our All-Star Top 24. But it’s not just ahead because it won last year. It has the most nominations (seven) when you count the show and its offshoots “After the Cut,” “Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse” and “Desi Lydic Foxsplains.” It’s also the only talk show nominated for Best Variety Series Writing, usually a strong indicator of strength in the top program category.

However, this is the first year the show is nominated without Trevor Noah — or any regular full-time host — at the helm. The show is now hosted by the “Daily Show” news team on a rotating basis, with former star Jon Stewart also stepping in one day a week for the election year. The series was virtually unbeatable with Stewart in the anchor chair before he exited the show in 2015: it won 11 times during his original tenure.

But Stewart’s “Daily Show” did lose to Stephen Colbert‘s “The Colbert Report” in 2013 and 2014. Colbert hasn’t had as much luck since taking over “The Late Show,” nominated every year since 2017 without a win as of yet. But it also took “Colbert Report” several years to finally beat “The Daily Show”: his 2013 victory over Stewart was on his eighth try. Right now there’s one Expert and three Top Users forecasting a “Late Show” victory.

There’s one nominee who has waited even longer for a victory: Jimmy Kimmel. His “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” has been nominated 11 times since 2012; one Expert and one Top User are predicting his overdue triumph. Underdog “Late Night with Seth Meyers” rounds out the category in fourth place, but remember, “The Daily Show” was also ranked fourth in our odds when it won last year. So don’t count it out.