Weak Report: Why the Chikangawa Plane Crash Interim Report raises more questions and suspicions than answers

(Based on a quick analysis by a German expert who worked for Dornier manufacturer in Investigations Department)

Following the release of the interim report prepared by BFU, I had a quick chat this morning with my dear German friend Hans W – a very experienced aeronautics engineer (retired now) who previously worked for the company that manufactured Dorniers, on his opinions about the report. His quick reaction was – “this is a WEAK report and it is going to raise more questions for Malawians than it provides answers to help closure for the families that lost their beloved ones.”

Here is what this expert mentioned (he will provide a detailed analysis over the weekend as he is traveling today).

Key Weaknesses and Unanswered Questions in the Malawi Air Force Crash Report

The interim report on the tragic crash of the Dornier 228-202(K) in Malawi raises significant concerns due to several weaknesses and unanswered questions. While the report details the sequence of events, it falls short in crucial areas that could provide clarity on the accident’s true causes.

Here’s why the report is weak and the critical questions that emerge:

1. Unrecorded Communications:
   The absence of recorded communications between the flight crew and air traffic control is a significant gap. Without these recordings, we lose insight into the crew’s decision-making process and any instructions they received. This is the biggest gap mentioned by Hans.

Why weren’t these communications recorded?
Could there have been critical exchanges that might have altered the outcome?

2. Unexplained Flight Manoeuvres:
   The report documents erratic flight manoeuvres, such as unexpected turns and altitude changes, but fails to explain them adequately.

Were these manoeuvres a response to external conditions, or do they hint at deeper issues like mechanical failure, disagreements or disorientation?

3. Mobile Phone Data:
   While the report mentions mobile phone data, it does not delve into its implications.

Could this data provide insights into the final moments of the flight, and why wasn’t it thoroughly analyzed?

4. Weather Conditions
   While the report notes poor weather at Mzuzu Airport, it doesn’t fully explore whether the crew was adequately prepared or informed. The report does not mention the details of the conversations that took place between crew and Air Traffic Control staff. With the flight originating from Mzuzu, weather conditions alone can not explain the discourse of the flight.

Did the crew have sufficient weather data, and was their decision to proceed prudent under the circumstances?

5. Non-functional Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT)
   The ELT, crucial for search and rescue operations, had a battery that expired in 2004, rendering it useless. So a flight that has been used by the president and VP did not have a functional ELT. Okay.

Why was this critical equipment not maintained, and does this indicate broader maintenance failings?

6. Absence of Flight Data and Cockpit Voice Recorders

The lack of Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) leaves a significant void in understanding the accident.

Was this an oversight in safety measures, especially for a military flight? What crucial information are we missing due to their absence?

7. Delayed Search and Rescue Efforts
   Search and rescue operations were hampered by the non-functional ELT and poor visibility, delaying the discovery of the crash site.

Could a more timely response have provided more evidence, and what improvements are needed in SAR protocols?

8. Outdated Navigation Aids
   The report reveals that several navigation aids were outdated or non-functional.

How did the lack of reliable navigation tools affect the flight, especially in challenging weather conditions?

9. Handling of Wreckage Post-Crash:
   The movement of wreckage during the recovery process potentially disturbed critical evidence.

Did this affect the integrity of the investigation, and could it have obscured vital clues?

10. Lack of Detailed Maintenance History
    The report does not provide a detailed maintenance history of the aircraft, which is essential to understand any pre-existing mechanical issues.

Was the aircraft properly maintained, and could unresolved issues have contributed to the crash?

This report leaves many critical questions unanswered and highlights weaknesses that need addressing to uncover the true cause of the accident. Further investigation, more thorough analysis, and answers to these gaps are necessary to ensure a comprehensive understanding of this tragic event. The families of the victims and the aviation community deserve clarity and assurance that every aspect of this accident has been fully explored.

More to be shared once Hans comes back to me with full report.

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