Harris’s Sun Belt gains open new path to potential victory

The race for the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia are tightening, as Vice President Harris closes the gap former President Trump had built on President Biden when he was the presumptive Democratic nominee. 

Harris is polling slightly ahead of Trump in Nevada and Georgia, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released Thursday, while Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona in the same survey. 

Harris enjoyed a 2-point average edge over Trump in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada according to a Bloomberg News/ Morning Consult poll released Thursday while Fox News polls on Wednesday show Harris leading by 1 point in Arizona, 2 points in Georgia and 2 points in Nevada. 

Biden won all three states in 2020 after Trump won Georgia and Arizona in 2016. North Carolina, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, is also in play after Cook Political Report declared the state a “toss up” this week.

Wins by Harris in any of the states would be a big blow to Trump, while a sweep would make it unlikely he'd win reelection absent big surprises elsewhere in the Electoral College.

“The biggest thing her candidacy has done is opened up multiple paths in the Electoral College and that route now runs through states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina just as much as the Blue Wall states,” said Clayton Cox, former Democratic National Committee (DNC) national finance director.

The newfound momentum behind Harris in the Sun Belt has put states in play Biden had been trailing Trump, especially in the final throws of his reelection campaign.  

In the days before Biden withdrew, Trump had a 4 percentage point lead over Biden in Georgia, a 5.8 percentage point lead over Biden in Nevada, a 5.7 percentage point lead over Biden in Arizona, and a 4.9 percentage point lead in North Carolina, according to the DDHQ/ The Hill aggregation of polls.

Harris has now closed that gap but she’s up by the thinnest of margins. 

The current aggregation of polls has Harris with a 0.1 percentage point lead in Georgia, a 0.7 percentage point lead in Nevada, and a 0.1 percentage point lead in Arizona. Trump and Harris are currently tied in North Carolina.

Nationally, Harris has a 3.8 percentage point lead over Trump, according to the DDHQ/The Hill aggregation of polls as of the end of August. That’s a flip from the 3.3 percentage point lead that Trump had over Biden right before the president withdrew his candidacy, according to the aggregation at the time.

Biden caved to pressure by his fellow Democrats, particularly congressional leaders, to drop out after internal electoral maps started showing in July that not only did Biden have a longshot to win against Trump, but the party would also struggle in House and Senate races.  

Enter Harris, and Democrats now have new found hope that they have a shot at winning 2024, as evidenced in part by the enthusiasm that has followed her around the country. Democrats chalk part of her success up to a messaging strategy that seems to be resonating.

“Kamala Harris has an inclusive, forward-looking message, paired it with authentic delivery and as a result has begun building a coalition that creates multiple paths to 270 whereas Trump's regressive, divisive message has seemingly narrowed his options,” said Adam Abrams, a communications official on former President Obama’s 2008 campaign and a partner at Seven Letter.

The Fox News polls that showed Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump in Arizona marks a 6-point gain over Biden, who trailed Trump in the state by 5 points in a June 2024 poll. 

Meanwhile, Harris’s 2 point lead over Trump in Georgia and Nevada is an 8 and 7 point gain, respectively over Biden’s June polling in those states. That survey irked the Trump campaign, who dubbed it “atrocious polling.”

While Trump has a 1-point lead over Harris in North Carolina, Harris has managed to close the gap there too. Trump was ahead of Biden in the Tarheel state by 4 points.

Harris’s campaign travel shows a concentrated effort to target places like Savannah, Phoenix and Las Vegas with recent rallies and fundraisers to help pad her campaign war chest.  

Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) this week fundraised in North Carolina and Harris and Walz launched a bus tour across southern Georgia that culminated in their first joint prime-time interview since riding to the top of the Democratic ticket. 

Harris has made an effort to appeal to voters in the swing states, who may be independents, undecided or moderate Republicans. The interview with CNN highlighted changes in her posture on fracking and at the border compared to when she ran in the 2020 primary.

In an August memo, the Harris campaign stressed that it has multiple paths to 270 but has increased its investments significantly in Sun Belt states. Compared to Biden’s 2020 run, the Harris campaign is investing four times as much in television ads in Georgia and nearly six times as much in Nevada.

Harris closing the polling gap in those essential Sun Belt states is reminiscent of former President Obama’s coalition that sent him to the White House twice, which included young college-educated voters, Cox argued.  While Obama never carried Arizona or Georgia, he won Nevada in 2008 and 2012 and North Carolina in 2008.

“Every presidential campaign has their own path and their own coalitions which will lead them to victory. The Harris-Walz campaign appears to be building a coalition similar to the one that sent Barack Obama to two terms,” he said, “This coalition is younger, more diverse and relies more on college educated voters which happens to reflect more of the Sun Belt.”