The Sparks path to Paige Bueckers and the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, explained
Sitting at the bottom of the WNBA standings, the Sparks are on the brink of obtaining the No. 1 pick in what looks to be another generational draft class, headlined by Paige Bueckers
With the Sparks sitting at 7-25, they are heading towards not only another season without postseason play but also the worst winning percentage in the franchise's 28-year history.
Their .219 win percentage this season is the lowest in franchise history, easily surpassing the previous mark of .294 in the 2007 season, a year they also finished last in the league.
Heading into September, the team's chances of reaching the postseason are mathematically possible but not probable, while the opportunity to improve their odds of a No. 1 pick, and very likely UConn guard Paige Bueckers, looks very alluring.
Sparks head coach Curt Miller might be sick of the tanking talk, but given how good this draft class is projected to be and how close the Sparks are to nabbing the top spot, we must discuss it.
2025 WNBA draft lottery
Regarding the lottery, the four teams who miss the playoffs can win the No. 1 pick.
The main thing to remember about the WNBA draft is that your lottery odds are based on the cumulative records of the two most recent regular seasons.
Currently, the four teams out of the playoffs are the Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics, Dallas Wings, and the L.A. Sparks.
Atlanta will have zero interest in tanking games as they traded their 2025 first round draft pick to the Dallas Wings for Allisha Gray last winter. As things stand, the Wings have two chances of winning the lottery and the third and fourth-best odds of doing so.
The good, or bad, news for the Sparks is that they have had the worst record in both seasons.
The Sparks have yet to lock in the best odds of the top spot, but they are close. They have 24 wins over the past two seasons and their closest competition, the Washington Mystics, have 29 wins.
That's a five-game advantage. All three non-playoff teams have seven games left to play, while the Sparks have eight matchups left in the WNBA season.
Therefore, the Sparks need to lose four more games to lock in the top spot or have the Mystics win four games to ensure the gap will not be closed.
Dropping some games should be relatively easy for the Sparks. They have the second toughest remaining schedule, with their opponents' winning percentage of .592. The only team with a tougher schedule the rest of the way is the defending champion Las Vegas Aces.
If the Sparks seal the best odds for the No. 1 pick, that would be ideal, but it is only half the job. They still have to win the pick and we won't know if that will happen until later this year.
Last season, the lottery was presented on ESPN on Dec. 10 and Indiana Fever won it, securing the generational talent Caitlin Clark.
If the Sparks land the top spot in the lottery, they’ll have a 44.2% chance at the No. 1 pick, far greater odds than the NBA. The No. 2 spot in the lottery has a 27.6% chance and the No. 3 spot has a 17.8% chance. As you can see, it greatly behooves the Sparks to finish with the worst record.
So, as odd as it may seem, the two teams Sparks fans should be rooting for to win the rest of the year are the Washington Mystics and whoever Los Angeles is playing.
Who will be the No. 1 pick?
Most mock drafts will have Bueckers as the first player off the board.
Bueckers has been a top prospect since high school and comes from a long lineage of elite players who have come out of Geno Auriemma’s UConn program, including Breanna Stewart, Diana Taurasi and Napheesa Collier.
Last year at Uconn, Bueckers averaged 21.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists, leading the Huskies to a Final Four appearance.
Prior to the media frenzy that followed Iowa and Caitlin Clark, it was Bueckers who was winning awards and drawing the attention. In 2021 — the freshman season for both guards — Bueckers won Associated Press National Player of the Year, along with a litany of Freshman of the Year awards after averaging 20 points and 5.8 assists on 52.4% shooting.
A pair of injuries limited her to just 17 games between the end of the 2021 season and the beginning of the 2023 season, but she bounced back in a big way last year to re-establish herself as one of the elite prospects in recent years.
Her offensive explosiveness at the guard position is something the Sparks desperately lack. Adding her to a core that includes Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson and Dearica Hamby could ignite a turnaround akin to what Clark and the Fever had in 2024.
Bueckers is not just the top guard in this draft, she’s a generational prospect that, barring something drastic, will be the No. 1 pick next spring.
The only question is whether the Sparks will be the ones who make that selection.
You can follow Edwin on Twitter at @ECreates88.