NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Packers-Eagles in Brazil, Caleb Williams debuts and more

It’s been a long, lonely offseason without the NFL.

Ok, fine. It’s been a long, lonely offseason without being able to bet on the NFL. But those two go hand-in-hand — and wagering on anything other than the under in the preseason just doesn’t cut it.

Thankfully, Week 1 is here cure our blues. As of now, we all have a winning record. That might not last much longer, which is why our staff is working on a first-place trophy and last-place punishment for the best and worst performances this season.

Stay tuned.

In the meantime, a quick reminder of last year’s records. Tail responsibly.

Name	2023-24 Record
Christian D’Andrea	146-131-7
Prince Grimes	143-134-7
Charles Curtis	135-126-7
Blake Schuster	134-143-7
Robert Zeglinski	124-121-7

All odds via BetMGM

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday Night)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3

Blake Schuster: Chiefs -3

I typically fade teams on banner-raising night, but Kansas City is the one team that doesn’t seem to care about “distractions”. I also have questions about Baltimore’s wideouts, though I expect that’ll work itself out quickly.

Prince Grimes: Ravens +3

This playoff letdown made the Ravens get Derrick Henry. Now is their time to show the difference he’ll make. I also think it could take a couple games for the revamped Chiefs WR corps to make an impact, especially with Marquise Brown out.

Charles Curtis: Ravens +3

I know the Chiefs are still really good and will raise the banner. But Baltimore is here to prove something in Week 1 and will at least cover.

Cory Woodroof: Chiefs -3

Let’s not overthink this.

Robert Zeglinski: Ravens +3

The Chiefs ended the Ravens’ best season in years amid another Lamar Jackson MVP campaign. Baltimore ran it back, bringing a Mack Truck (Derrick Henry) into the backfield. There is absolutely zero chance this rematch doesn’t go down to the wire.

Christian D’Andrea: Chiefs -3

Baltimore’s defense lost a lot of horses. Opening against the Chiefs, in Arrowhead Stadium, feels mean.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Friday, in São Paulo, Brazil)

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5

Blake Schuster: Packers +2.5

I really like Jordan Love and his connection with Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs, which leads me to believe they’ll all take a step forward this year. Beyond that, always take the points in a novelty game.

Prince Grimes: Eagles -2.5

These teams are fairly even to me, but I trust Philly’s new offense to exploit the holes in Green Bay’s defense a little more than the other way around.

Charles Curtis: Eagles -2.5

I love Jordan Love (sorry) and Co., but I see the Eagles continuing to show they’re contenders.

Cory Woodroof: Packers +2.5

Expecting big things from the Pack this season.

Robert Zeglinski: Packers +2.5

Jordan Love is set for a sleeper MVP-caliber campaign, and is surrounded by one of the more underrated receiving corps in pro football. I expect him to cut up the Eagles’ secondary without much resistance.

Christian D’Andrea: Packers +2.5

Philadelphia’s secondary fixes were badly needed, but asking young players to step up against Green Bay’s deep well of receiving talent is going to leave openings *somewhere.* And Jordan Love is very, very good at floating passes to wide open WR4/TE2 types.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Falcons -2

Blake Schuster: Falcons -3

I would take the Steelers if this game were in Pittsburgh, which shows my level of confidence in the Falcons. I’m hoping the clear talent disparity wins out for Atlanta.

Prince Grimes: Falcons -3

Pittsburgh’s offense is the worst unit taking the field in this game. That’s guiding my pick here.

Charles Curtis: Falcons -3

A trickier spread than it seems given that Mike Tomlin wins games a lot. But I like what I see from Atlanta.

Cory Woodroof: Steelers +3

Never, ever, ever trust the Falcons to live up to any ounce of hype.

Robert Zeglinski: Falcons -3

This is how high my confidence is in Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields) attempting to complete forward passes.

Christian D’Andrea: Falcons -3

I understand it would be the most Falcons thing in the world to come into the season with actual, honest hype and immediately fall on their faces at home. But against this Steelers team???

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Bills -7

Blake Schuster: Cardinals +6.5

Ok, ok, I know. West Coast team playing on the East Coast in a noon kickoff is a trap, but I genuinely love the Cardinals’ offense this year and it feels like a lot of people have been sleeping on Kyler Murray. Also, why aren’t we talking about Marvin Harrison Jr. more? We should really be talking about him more.

Prince Grimes: Bills -6.5

This feels like the type of early-season game where Josh Allen can remind everyone why he’s a perennial MVP candidate.

Charles Curtis: Cardinals +6.5

Hey, friends, you’re all sleeping on Kyler Murray and that offense. They’ll cover this with ease.

Cory Woodroof: Cardinals +6.5

Watch Arizona surprise a lot of people this year.

Robert Zeglinski: Bills -6.5

That bright red Cardinals Kool-Aid everyone seems to be sipping does taste good. But I’m not going to bet against the NFL’s Terminator (Josh Allen) making an opening statement when everyone has counted his team out.

Christian D’Andrea: Cardinals +6.5

The Cardinals’ defense is a problem, but the Bills aren’t exactly loaded with talent right now. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. should be able to do enough to keep this close.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Bears -4.5

Blake Schuster: Bears -4

Put up or shut up, Chicago. Enough of the hype already. A slow start (even against the Titans) and this city is going to panic.

Prince Grimes: Titans +4

I think the Bears win, but they’re still starting a rookie quarterback in his first career start. I’ll take the points.

Charles Curtis: Titans +4

Tennessee can keep things just tight enough to cover, especially against a rookie QB.

Cory Woodroof: Bears -4

That Chicago defense will cause problems for a Titans offense in transition.

Robert Zeglinski: Bears -4

It won’t be pretty for 60 minutes, as much as Bears fans hope. Caleb Williams will look like a rookie making his first career start, especially against a feisty Titans defense. But Chicago is a better team with a better roster, and the cream will eventually rise to the top.

Christian D’Andrea: Bears -4

Chicago finished 2023 with a top three defense over the final half of the season… and it’s only laying four points at home against Will Levis???

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Bengals -8

Blake Schuster: Bengals -8

So is Drake Maye is starting by Week 4 or sooner?

Prince Grimes: Patriots +8

The Bengals are allergic to good starts in the Joe Burrow era (1-3 in season openers). That problem is compounded by Ja’Marr Chase’s potential absence. They should win this one, but I’ll take the points.

Charles Curtis: Bengals -8

I don’t care if Ja’Marr Chase misses this one.

Cory Woodroof: Bengals -8

Healthy Joe Burrow helps so, so much.

Robert Zeglinski: Bengals -8

Potentially no Ja’Marr Chase makes this matchup a lot more interesting. The Bengals’ offense, unsurprisingly, often looks like a shell of itself without its No. 1 receiver. That said, the Patriots are awful from top to bottom and are all but unofficially tanking. Cincinnati should win in a comfortable rout, with or without Chase.

Christian D’Andrea: Patriots +8

Cincinnati starts slow. Consider this its first real preseason game.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Opening Line: Texans -2.5

Blake Schuster: Colts +3

The Texans win this one, but the Colts cover with Anthony Richardson reminding everyone how good he looked before getting hurt last year.

Prince Grimes: Texans -3

The Texans are the superior team here, and Anthony Richardson hasn’t played in a long time.

Charles Curtis: Texans -3

Sweating this one a bit given that it’s a divisional game. But the Texans are stacked.

Cory Woodroof: Texans -3

Very excited to see how C.J. Stroud does this season.

Robert Zeglinski: Texans -3

The Texans are a loaded Super Bowl contender ready to hit their stride. Anthony Richardson’s gonna need a few weeks to get back up to speed before the Colts are ready to challenge their division rival for AFC South supremacy.

Christian D’Andrea: Colts +3

Indianapolis has cohesion (Chris Ballard kept the band together in free agency) and enough wideout talent to make Houston pay for a young, inexperienced secondary. Throw in Anthony Richardson’s flamethrower tendencies and the disrespect of being a home dog (and whatever tape they’ve got on CJ Stroud) and I like the Colts straight-up.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5

Blake Schuster: Dolphins -3.5

This line could probably be double and I’d still take Miami. The Dolphins’ offense is just too explosive.

Prince Grimes: Dolphins -3.5

Miami at home has been almost unbeatable this time of the year. They started 4-0 ATS at home last season.

Charles Curtis: Dolphins -3.5

Trevor Lawrence will bounce back but not in Week 1.

Cory Woodroof: Dolphins -3.5

The good Miami vibes stifle a tough Jacksonville team.

Robert Zeglinski: Dolphins -3.5

This shoddy Jacksonville defense against Mike McDaniel’s high-flying offense? Oof. Let’s not confuse our narratives. These Dolphins kill it in September and October.

Christian D’Andrea: Dolphins -3.5

Week 1 lines are always very conservative (unless you’re playing the Patriots). There’s a chance Miami blows this, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should have plenty of success against a secondary that isn’t in anyone’s circle of trust.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: Saints -4.5

Blake Schuster: Saints -4

Aside from the Falcons, do we really have to watch the NFC South this year? We can’t just sim to the draft?

Prince Grimes: Panthers +4

The Saints might be closer to the Panthers than they are to the Falcons.

Charles Curtis: Saints -4

Another divisional matchup that might be closer than you think. Until I see Year 2 of Bryce Young, I’ll take the better team.

Cory Woodroof: Panthers +4

Bryce Young and Dave Canales might be perfect for each other.

Robert Zeglinski: Panthers +4

The Saints do not wear stagnancy well. Nothing meaningful has changed about this moribund franchise. So much so that I expect Carolina, the worst team in football last year, to give these dormant Saints a real run for their money.

Christian D’Andrea: Panthers +4

I am a big dumb animal who reads into preseason highlights too much and, thus, believes in Dave Canales’ positive impact on Bryce Young.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Opening Line: Vikings -1

Blake Schuster: Giants +1.5

Congrats to New York for beating the most cursed team in football (non-Atlanta division).

Prince Grimes: Giants +1.5

I’m on the Giants moneyline. One team Daniel Jones shows up against is the Vikings.

Charles Curtis: Vikings -1.5

I…do I have to?

Cory Woodroof: Giants +1.5

Danny Dimes reads the tweets.

Robert Zeglinski: Vikings -1.5

The Giants have a blocky Minecraft character playing quarterback. What on Earth have they done to earn any faith against any team ever?

Christian D’Andrea: Giants +1.5

I dunno man, Daniel Jones is probably gonna get blitzed to oblivion but I imagine he can loft enough shots up to Malik Nabers to generate some measured optimism in northern New Jersey.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Chargers -3

Blake Schuster: Raiders +3

I’m not sure Jim Harbaugh’s run-centric offense is going to be up to speed yet, so give me the team with Davante Adams.

Prince Grimes: Raiders +3

This Raiders defense should be really good. And the Chargers don’t have a homefield advantage in this one (or any game for that matter).

Charles Curtis: Chargers -3

Counting on Jim Harbaugh to make a splash in his first week. Also, the Raiders are bleh.

Cory Woodroof: Chargers -3

Pour some milk out to celebrate, LA.

Robert Zeglinski: Chargers -3

Jim Harbaugh coaches his team the same way Antonio Pierce does. Their respective players eat a bowl of nails (without milk) every week. So, when in doubt, give me the team with Justin Herbert as the quarterback.

Christian D’Andrea: Raiders +3

Las Vegas fielded a top three defense after Antonio Pierce took over. That, plus competent quarterback play from Gardner Minshew should keep the Raiders in the playoff hunt this winter.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5

Blake Schuster: Seahawks -6

But I get the feeling the Broncos might be a darling against the spread this year if they’re even slightly better than expected.

Prince Grimes: Seahawks -6

Mike Macdonald’s defense is going to give Bo Nix a fit. Especially in Seattle.

Charles Curtis: Seahawks -6

Bo Nix might be fun this year, but there’s no way I’m betting on him now.

Cory Woodroof: Broncos +6

Denver shocks in Week 1 and inspires a lot of hot takes.

Robert Zeglinski: Seahawks -6

The best part of the Seattle defense, now coached by the genius Mike Macdonald, is the secondary. What a brutal first road test for Bo Nix.

Christian D’Andrea: Broncos +6

I think Mike Macdonald will be a good head coach. I also think his first game on the sideline will have just enough mistakes to keep Denver in this until the end.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5

Blake Schuster: Cowboys +2.5

We don’t start fading Dallas until December.

Prince Grimes: Cowboys +2.5

People are way too down on Dallas this year. The defense should still be solid… at least solid enough to give Deshaun Watson a hard time.

Charles Curtis: Cowboys +2.5

Cleveland is better than you think but not Cowboys-as-underdogs better.

Cory Woodroof: Cowboys +2.5

Deshaun Watson throws three picks, and the Boys get it done.

Robert Zeglinski: Cowboys +2.5

The Cowboys’ defense remains elite and Dak Prescott remains an elite quarterback. Very good teams make games like this laughers.

Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys +2.5

Deshaun Watson, formerly accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself later described as “predatory behavior,” has been the league’s 42nd-best quarterback since 2021 in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.5

Blake Schuster: Buccaneers -3

Wait why are the Bucs only three-point favorites? We’re worried about this offense against Washington? Are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans suddenly gone?

Prince Grimes: Buccaneers -3

Washington is starting a rookie QB on the road with a questionable receiving corps.

Charles Curtis: Buccaneers -3

I do like Jayden Daniels, but the Bucs will beat him in his first appearance.

Cory Woodroof: Buccaneers -3

Washington will need time to figure itself out.

Robert Zeglinski: Buccaneers -3

The Commanders are starting a rookie QB with an awful offensive supporting cast who is also being buoyed by a forgettable defense. Tampa Bay’s mojo from last season carries over seamlessly.

Christian D’Andrea: Buccaneers -3

I do not understand this line.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday Night)

Opening Line: Lions -3

Blake Schuster: Lions -3.5

Just the mental relief of knowing Aaron Donald can’t hurt you anymore is worth three points. I’ll bet the Lions can make up the rest.

Prince Grimes: Rams +3.5

The Rams only lost by a point to Detroit in the playoffs. I don’t think they’re that far off.

Charles Curtis: Rams +3.5

Detroit is awesome. The Rams are sneaky good. That means you take the points.

Cory Woodroof: Rams +3.5

It’d be very Detroit for LA to get revenge.

Robert Zeglinski: Rams +3.5

The Lions deserve every bit of their hype as one of the league’s true Super Bowl heavyweights. But the Rams are ready for a resurgence of their own, and they’re not just gonna let the Lions throw a Sunday night party. Matthew Stafford himself won’t allow it.

Christian D’Andrea: Lions -3.5

I liked this line a lot better at -3, and the Rams have the horses to put Detroit’s rebuilt secondary to the test. But LA’s defense remains a work in progress and the Lions have enough talent to grind out a primetime win.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night)

Opening Line: 49ers -5

Blake Schuster: 49ers -4

Not betting on the Jets or Aaron Rodgers until they give me a damn good reason.

Prince Grimes: 49ers -4

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played since 2022. And even then he wasn’t that good.

Charles Curtis: 49ers -4

I am worried about the Jets’ D and Aaron Rodgers returning. But let’s take this and see if I’m wrong.

Cory Woodroof: 49ers -4

The gang is back together and ready to roll.

Robert Zeglinski: 49ers -4

Aaron Rodgers is a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles, who basically hasn’t played football in two years. Now he gets the pleasure of facing a Nick Bosa-led defense on the road in his first game back. Good luck, man. You’ll need it.

Christian D’Andrea: 49ers -4

Aaron Rodgers’ game is defined by his scrambling. He had his least efficient season as a runner in 2022, then tore his Achilles at age 40 last fall. The Jets will still be good even if he’s average, but they’ll have to be great to win in Santa Clara.