AFC South breakdown: How will the division shake out in 2024 NFL season?
With the 2024 NFL regular season around the corner, every team in the league is set to make some tough decisions, cutting down the roster to get 53 men who will start the year with Super Bowl aspirations.
However, with only so many playoff spots to secure, every team will be fighting to come out of their division as winners, or at least earn a wild card spot.
FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd gave his predictions for how each division will shake out before training camp began. Using those rankings, here is a breakdown of each team in each division, continuing with the AFC South.
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Colin says: "I worried about the Texans pulling back, but they had another really strong draft and free agency period. Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon. I’ll take them to win."
The surprise of the NFL last season was the Texans, a team that had a great draft and free agency period, but some believed C.J. Stroud and company would need time before reaching their potential.
Now, they are expected to defend their AFC South crown after going 10-7 last season.
As Cowherd mentioned, Houston doubled down on Stroud’s emergence as one of the best quarterbacks in the league after his rookie season, getting him Mixon in the backfield and Diggs as another elite weapon at wide receiver.
AFC WEST BREAKDOWN: HOW WILL THE DIVISION SHAKE OUT IN 2024 NFL SEASON?
While many believe the Texans had a great draft, getting two secondary pieces to shore up that area of the depth chart, it is clear the biggest acquisition of the offseason is a vital piece to what the team accomplishes in 2024.
Diggs' time in Buffalo was elite alongside Josh Allen, but talks of tension in the locker room ultimately led the Bills to move on, and the Texans jumped with the right trade package.
Diggs, alongside Nico Collins and Tank Dell, creates possibly the best receiving corps in the league with one of the game's young stars. Will this look on the field as it does on paper? Diggs' ability to work at any level should create a total problem for defenses all season long.
The roster is stacked, including the addition of edge rusher Danielle Hunter to beef up the defensive line. The quarterback has proven himself with his young weapons, and the offensive line is stout.
So, just how far can the Texans go this season? If they do not make the playoffs, it will be a disappointment, but this is the position the franchise wanted to be in again after drafting Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third overall picks in last year's draft.
As long as health is on their side, the Texans are the favorites to win this division, and could very well be a favorite to take the AFC depending on how things shake out.
Colin says: "I think it’s Trevor Lawrence’s best roster yet. Jaguars finish second. They were 9-8 last year and Trevor Lawrence fell apart down the stretch. They’ll rebound."
Duval County was not happy to see Lawrence and the Jaguars falter in the second half to the point where they did not make the playoffs, but Cowherd’s optimism may give them solace heading into 2024.
The Jaguars do have a star-studded roster even if Calvin Ridley is no longer in the receiving corps. Travis Etienne still holds down the backfield, while deep threat Gabe Davis joins Christian Kirk, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is a first-round pick many believe could be Lawrence’s best threat in the pass game in 2024.
Meanwhile, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker see Arik Armstead on their defensive line now, while center Mitch Morse and guard Ezra Cleveland creates better protection for the quarterback Jacksonville paid a whopping $275 million over five years this offseason.
Lawrence has no choice but to pick up his game, which as seen can be elite but needs more consistency, as he is among the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league now.
NFC WEST BREAKDOWN: HOW WILL THE DIVISION SHAKE OUT IN NFL SEASON?
Some major players who will contribute this season have already been mentioned, but a sneaky pickup that could pay huge dividends for the Jaguars is Darby, the veteran cornerback who comes from the stingy unit that is the Baltimore Ravens.
In a pass-heavy division, the Jaguars need a solid secondary, which also sports new safety Darnell Savage, who can be the nickelback as well.
Darby has proven he can be a pest for offenses, allowing just 19 catches on 43 balls targeted his way last season over 16 games (seven starts). His workload increases in Jacksonville, and if he can post numbers like that in Duval, then the Jaguars’ defense will be noticeably better.
The Jaguars lost five of their final six games last season, falling out of the division lead to allow the Texans to win it all. In those games, Lawrence threw for an average 62.37% completion rate with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also lost three fumbles, and the bounce fell out of his hands five times.
Simply put, Lawrence needs to show more consistency, which was seen in the five-game win streak earlier in the year with six touchdowns to two interceptions and a 70.89% completion rate.
Of course, football is a team sport, and it is not all on Lawrence. However, when losing happens, and a lot of it, like the second-half crumble, fingers get pointed at the quarterback. The roster talent is there, especially on offense. The Jaguars are a playoff-ready team and the quarterback is the driving force here.
Colin says: "I like the Colts, but I question Anthony Richardson’s playing style and staying healthy."
The Colts took Richardson fourth overall last year, and there were flashes of exactly what they were thinking with the Florida product. He has a cannon for an arm, appears to be a natural leader on offense and, gosh, he is hard to tackle when he gets going with his legs.
However, to Cowherd’s point, is Richardson’s play style of trying to barrel over defenders while making passes each week the right idea? He suffered a shoulder injury last season that forced him out after just four games. He went 2-2 in those games with a 59.5% completion rate, three passing touchdowns and one interception and four rushing touchdowns.
Will the Colts change things up, or simply hope that Richardson’s rushing reps do not end up with him on the season-ending IR again?
Laiatu Latu was just a tank for a lackluster UCLA Bruins squad in his senior season in 2023, which is why the Colts took him in the first round. He had 13 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions as a defensive lineman.
The Colts have players like Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor and others on offense that bode well now and for the future. However, they needed some on the defensive line in what is a solid defensive corps to begin with.
Latu may not start right away, as the Colts also employ Kwity Paye and Tyquan Lewis off the edge. However, fans can bet coordinator Gus Bradley will be swapping him in to give the pass rush another solid player that can wreak havoc on gamedays.
"He’s fine, he’s good to go," head coach Shane Steichen said earlier this offseason about Richardson and his shoulder entering his second season. However, there have been clips at practice of Richardson throwing balls with his left hand instead of his right, and because it was just four games to go off of, many Colts fans are wondering what is in store for their signal caller in 2024.
It is easy to say success in the NFL hinges on the quarterback, but it is very true for the Colts when that is their biggest question mark on offense. They have the receiving talent, and Taylor is more than a capable running back.
Fans will know early on just how healthy and ready Richarson is to tackle his second year in the league – one he hopes to play all 17 games in.
Colin says: "The Titans, I have questions at quarterback and their offensive line’s worse than Will Levis."
Tennessee has a new head coach in town in Brian Callahan, and he is going with Levis to lead the way in this new regime, though he does not really have a better option with Mason Rudolph behind him.
Levis showcased an arm for the NFL, but his decision-making skills and ability to consistently lead an offense are still questionable.
Either way, Tennessee GM Ran Carthon beefed up the talent around him and made moves that could see them compete better than what experts project them to be in 2024.
How do you help a young quarterback? You get them elite talent, and that is what Ridley can be alongside DeAndre Hopkins in this offense … if Levis can get him the ball.
Ridley had an interesting time in Jacksonville, as he had over 1,000 yards, but he never truly broke up with Lawrence throwing him the ball. Now, he remains in a division where he could be seeing more targets on a Titans team that could be more pass heavy with coordinator Nick Holz in place.
Ridley's burst of speed is still there, and he is a red zone threat, just like Hopkins. Levis has two elite options when they are healthy and playing, which is always a good thing.
Carthon did not just bring in offensive weapons – running back Tony Pollard replaced Derrick Henry as well – but he bolstered the defense, which needed some better talent.
Sebastian Joseph-Day is next to Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons in the defensive interior, linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. comes over from the Los Angeles Chargers to replace Azeez Al-Shaair, and Chidobe Awuzie is added at cornerback.
Also, L’Jarius Sneed, who shined with the Kansas City Chiefs, will be alongside Awuzie, while Quandre Diggs comes in at free safety.
Lots of new pieces can have trouble gelling quickly, but if Dennard Wilson can get this group together as coordinator, it has the opportunity to be a lethal bunch with turnovers possible on every snap.
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