2024 VMA predictions: Anitta, Tyla and Eminem have a leg up in genre categories

The 2024 MTV Video Music Awards are approaching on September 11, and I’m curious about how a number of the categories will turn out. I recently analyzed the races for Best Pop, Best R&B, Best Alternative and Best Rock. So let’s break down a few more of the genre contests.

Best Hip-Hop
Only one video here is nominated for Video of the Year, which means it might have an edge: Eminem’s “Houdini.” The song was a smash for Eminem as well, arguably the biggest hit nominated besides Gunna’s “Fukumean.” But an advantage that Eminem has over Gunna is that he has a more active fan base, even beyond hip-hop enthusiasts. “Houdini,” for instance, was a hit on alternative radio, as well as pop and urban radio, highlighting the veteran rapper’s cross-genre appeal. Plus, with Eminem’s song being much more recent, it has more hype.

There’s also Drake, SZA and Sexxy Red’s “Rich Baby Daddy,” which could win just based on the combination of the three fan bases, especially SZA’s. However, Drake has been pretty controversial this year, the subject of a rap beef with Kendrick Lamar that many would argue did not go well for Drizzy. That might stop a lot of people from voting for him. Also, it’s been a big year for Megan Thee Stallion, and with “Boa” getting a lot of love in other categories, she might be able to edge Eminem out. Still, I’m banking on “Houdini” for the win.

Best Latin
When it comes to fan-voted awards, you cannot bet against Anitta. The Brazilian superstar has a very large fan base and has had a great year with her nominated hits “Bellakeo” (alongside Peso Pluma) and “Mil Veces.” That said, having two songs nominated here could jeopardize her winning chances, especially since, while “Bellakeo” is the bigger hit, “Mil Veces” is the more technically impressive video. Still, I would bet on the former, especially since Peso Pluma fans will also support it.

If the Anitta songs split, though, my bet is that Karol G takes the award with “Mi Ex Tenía Razón,” mostly based on how strong Karol is at most award shows. There’s also Rauw Alejandro, who is performing at the ceremony, which could inspire enough people to vote for him and his hit “Touching the Sky.” As for now though, I imagine Anitta is taking it with an assist from Pluma.

Best Afrobeats
It has to be Tyla, right? The young South African singer has made waves with her debut era and self-titled album, and is nominated here for her massive crossover hit “Water,” which reached the top 10 in the US and topped charts internationally. The song will likely take this award, not only due to it being easily the biggest hit here, but because Tyla as a whole seems to be really popular right now, especially with younger audiences.

If someone were to upset here, it would probably be Chris Brown for “Sensational” featuring Davido and Lojay. Both Davido and Lojay have powerful fan bases, and Brown is obviously a big star in America, so the joint power of all three could result in a surprise win here. Still, I’ll say Tyla wins here just like she did at the Grammys in their inaugural Best African Music Performance category a few months ago.