How important is depth?
Cavs news and links for Friday, September 6.
Every week should only have four work days. Here’s your Cleveland Cavaliers news and links.
The first sip
Analyzing different lineups and re-evaluating the bench has been a running theme of mine for the past couple of weeks. An angle that I haven’t talked about fully is how much depth matters.
This was sparked by this breakdown of the New York Knicks’ rotation by Ian Heft. The Knicks are compensating for their lack of an A-list star by having an abundance of wings and exceptional role players. Their depth is impressive on paper. The Boston Celtics showed that a version of this formula can work even at the highest level. Is winning with a depth really the way forward?
The answer is yes and no. Depth is incredibly important over 82 games, but you can’t win on that alone in the postseason. That’s why stars matters. Having someone in the tier of Nikola Jokić means that your team will dominate when they’re on the floor. That incredibly high baseline gives way to impressive starting units.
The Celtics didn’t have that level of player, but they did have an incredible starting lineup. That’s what leads to wins in the postseason when rotations are cut down. Their regular season starters featuring Kristaps Porziņģis had an incredible net rating of +12. That success carried over to the playoffs when they were forced to swap in Al Horford in Porziņģis’s place. They outscored their opponent by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in the postseason.
Having dominant starters is a recurring trend among the five champions before the Celtics. Each team’s starters had a playoff net rating of +10 or better. The one exception is the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers who had a +5 net rating for their most used starting lineup, but the five-man group they played most (with JaVale McGhee in place of Dwight Howard) registered a +17.9 net rating and the starting lineup they used in Game 6 of the 2020 NBA Finals had a +44.1 playoff net rating.
Recent history shows that it’s more important how your best/most used lineups fair as opposed to who has the ten best players. That isn’t to say the Knicks’ model won’t work. Their starting lineup with Isaiah Hartenstein and OG Anunoby was impressive last season, so there’s reason to believe they can make it work with Mitchell Robinson and Mikal Bridges. But it is the strength of your starting group that makes the difference in the postseason.
This brings us around to the Cavs. Although there are concerns about the backup big situation or overall depth, the Cavaliers will only be as successful as their starting lineup is.
Last year’s starters will likely be the preferred group again this season. They were mediocre at best with a +2.3 net rating in the regular season. Jarrett Allen’s injury in the playoffs meant we didn’t get to see the starters for an extended stretch there, but they posted a -7.6 net rating in the four games they had together. The starters with Isaac Okoro in place of Allen didn’t fair much better with a -5.4 net rating against the Orlando Magic and Celtics.
Cleveland’s starting unit was much better in 2022-23, but still only managed a +3.2 postseason net rating against the Knicks. The bench was that team’s problem, but the starters also weren’t good enough to compensate.
Depth matters much more in the regular season than it does in the playoffs. The Cavs have shown that they can be incredibly successful over 82 games, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to the postseason despite the victory over Orlando. Their starters need to be better if that is ever going to change.
Random Cavalier of the Day - Omri Casspi
Trading for Omri Casspi in 2011 made sense. Casspi had shown to be a good shooter on the wing with the Sacramento Kings as he knocked down 36.9% and 37.2% of his threes in his first two seasons in the league. The problem was, he didn’t make them with the Cavs.
Casspi connected on just 32% of his threes during his two seasons in Cleveland. This led to a somewhat forgettable tenure. Fortunately for Casspi, he somewhat found his shot again which allowed him to stick around in the league until the 2018-19 season.
According to Casspi’s LinkedIn, he’s currently a “Former NBA champion turned venture capitalist.” His header on LinkedIn is a picture of him and LeBron holding bottles of Sprite. I’m not sure if that’s supposed to prove he’s an NBA champion or a venture capitalist.
Cavs news and links
WNBA schedule this weekend
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun, Friday, 7:30 PM
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever, Friday, 7:30 PM
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm, Saturday, 9 PM
- Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty, Sunday, 4 PM on ESPN
- Atlanta Dram vs. Indiana Fever, Sunday, 4 PM on ESPN 3
- Complete schedule here