Rising terror incidents in Pakistan cast doubt on operation Azm-i-Istehkam

It has been two and a half months since the Pakistan Army launched the new counterterrorism operation, Azm-i-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability), in the country.

However, there has been no improvement in Pakistan’s security situation. On the contrary, recent data suggests an increase in the overall number of terrorist attacks in some parts of the country.

According to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank, a total of 59 terrorist attacks occurred across Pakistan in August 2024, compared to 38 such attacks in July.[1] It is noteworthy that Operation Azm-i-Istehkam was announced on June 22. The latest data indicates that the Pakistan Army is failing to improve the security situation despite the new military campaign and the allocation of an excessive government fund of USD 300 million for anti-terrorism operations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This situation may have also raised concerns in China, which is worried about the safety and security of its citizens and workers in Pakistan.

Out of the 59 terror incidents, 29 occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 28 in Balochistan, and two in Punjab, resulting in 84 deaths and 166 injuries. The ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government is facing immense pressure from locals in these provinces, as well as from the political opposition, over its failure to curb the rise of terrorism. Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman recently urged parliament to engage in dialogue with the “people of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to address their security concerns.”[2] Representatives from other political parties have also met with senior leadership in the ruling government to discuss the matter. However, the Shehbaz Sharif-led PDM government is pressured by the military establishment to adopt a no peace dialogue policy with disgruntled extremist groups and human rights activists from the ethnic Baloch and Pashtun minorities.

The new military campaign allows General Syed Asim Munir to consolidate his power over civilian institutions and pressure the government for additional funding. More importantly, there will be no parliamentary discussions on the status of the anti-military operation. In the absence of any legal or political accountability, the military establishment will conduct selective operations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa without having to justify the real benefits or the financial cost to the exchequer. Human rights groups fear that ethnic minorities in Pakistan are now at a greater risk of facing targeted attacks and incidents of enforced disappearances by security agencies.

To silence critics and build a positive narrative around the new military campaign, General Munir has been proactively issuing statements promising the success of the anti-terrorism operation since its approval in June. However, these promises are not being taken seriously, and there is growing anti-army sentiment in response to recent terror attacks and the establishment’s attempts to create disturbances in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through Azm-i-Istehkam. At the recent Corps Commanders’ Conference, General Munir and others “reaffirmed that the Pakistan Army, with the unwavering support of the people, will not allow the hard-earned successes against terrorism to be reversed.”[3] This statement reflects the establishment’s non-serious attitude, as there has been no recent successes against terrorism in Pakistan.

According to data from the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), during the first quarter of 2024, Pakistan experienced 432 violence-related fatalities and 370 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws, resulting from 245 incidents of terror attacks and counterterrorism operations. Furthermore, compared to the last quarter of 2023, fatalities among civilians and Pakistani security officials surged by 17 percent, while the fatalities of outlaws, militants, and insurgents decreased by nearly 15 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This trend continues despite General Munir’s false claims of counterterrorism successes.

In his September 6 speech, General Munir claimed that “forces working to undermine the country’s security efforts and create a rift between the army and the people will once again meet defeat.”[4] This was another attempt to take a jab at Pakistan’s political class, accusing them of driving a wedge between the Army and the public. Munir understands that the only way to divert attention from the current security failures, despite the ongoing anti-terrorism operation, is to blame political leadership indirectly. Additionally, the Pakistan Army is facing pressure from Baloch and Pashtun politicians, as well as civilian activists, over the worsening security situation in the two border provinces. Therefore, it is blaming “external” actors like Afghanistan or Iran for supporting terrorism in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 

Islamabad’s attempts to play the ‘victim’ card on the issue of terrorism have garnered little international support. Even China’s concern is limited to the safety and security of its nationals in Pakistan. During his visit in June, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the Central Committee of the International Department of the Communist Party of China, warned the Pakistani side that “security” is the primary challenge threatening the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).[5] He stressed the “urgent need for enhanced security protocols and a more supportive business and media environment to ensure the project’s continuation and success.” Chinese President Xi Jinping asked for a guarantee on the ‘safety of Chinese personnel and projects’ from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during the latter’s visit to Beijing from June 4-8.[6]

With the unfavorable August data on terror incidents in Pakistan, concerns are growing in China regarding the capabilities of Pakistan’s military establishment to control terrorism, particularly in Balochistan. It is possible that the Commander of the Ground Forces of China’s People’s Liberation Army, General Li Qiaoming, conveyed Beijing’s message about the ongoing military operation in Pakistan during his visit to the latter country in the last week of August.[7] Amid visible signs of Azm-i-Istehkam’s failure, General Munir and his commanders may seek both internal and external reasons to deflect blame and conceal their incompetence. However, the people of Pakistan are increasingly unwilling to accept the Army’s narrative, which may lead to further instability in the country.

Sources:

[1] https://www.khaama.com/pak-institute-for-peace-studies-reports-surge-in-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan/

[2] https://www.dawn.com/news/1856878

[3] https://www.dawn.com/news/1856682

[4] https://www.dawn.com/news/1857351

[5] https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/senior-chinese-official-calls-security-threats-in-pakistan-main-hazards-to-cpec-cooperation/ar-BB1oIpIk

[6] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3265853/xi-jinping-asks-pakistan-guarantee-safety-chinese-personnel-and-projects-he-pledges-more-economic

[7] https://tribune.com.pk/story/2491450/president-zardari-honours-chinese-general-li-qiaoming-with-nishan-i-imtiaz-military

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