POLLS SHOW THE RACE TIGHTEN – RENEWING DEBATES ABOUT POLLS
People on both sides may argue – and they are – about the accuracy of current political polls on the 2024 Presidential election, about methodology, etc. But there is one thing that is now certain: many polls are now trending to show a tightening race.
The Washington Post ran this summary: “Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are about even in two new polls of likely voters released Sunday, demonstrating how close the 2024 presidential race has become with fewer than 60 days left before Nov. 5. Trump leads Harris 48 to 47 percent — within the margin of error — in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters. The two were also in very tight races among likely voters in each of the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in a CBS News/YouGov poll. The results raise the stakes for both nominees for the already highly anticipated presidential debate on Tuesday.”
Some things worth remembering about polls:
1. A political poll is a snapshot in time.
2. Individual polls matter less than how polls are trending.
3. Many partisans will tout polls that show their side ahead and then try to discredit the same polling company if there’s a poll that shows their side is behind.
4. In the 2024 Presidential race, it has long been predicted that many Republicans would return to the Trump fold once the novelty of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Presidential nominee wore off and the Republican/MAGA media and message machine was operating fullspeed.
5. A debate can indeed cause some movement in polls. Up or down. And, yes, debates have been credited with having decided elections.
6. The key moment to watch will be in the week or so before the election when independents start to make their decisions. There are fewer independent voter up for grabs in a highly polarizing 2024 United States but they could decide the outcome.
There have been 12 non-partisan polls published with interviews done since Aug 28th other than the new NYT poll. In these 12 polls Harris has a 3 pt lead on average, and none show the shift towards Trump the NYT finds.
The NYT tells us we should ignore all those polls. pic.twitter.com/hAkfjShWk3
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) September 8, 2024
And for those scolding everyone today to stop questioning this astonishing polling result and just "work harder" it would be helpful if they could explain it so people could "work harder" with some knowledge of how and why such an unprecedented change has happened https://t.co/kbrkXvM6ZM
— digby (@digby56) September 8, 2024
Presidential Polling Among Catholics:
Harris (D): 50%
Trump (R): 43%RealClear Opinion Research / Aug 30, 2024 / n=1000
(Republican Pollster)
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) September 8, 2024
Yesterday, everyone was saying what a sharp campaign Harris was running and today because the Oracle of Delphi has spoken, she's a disaster who must spend the next 2 weeks doing interviews with elite journalists who will finally get to the bottom of her paper straw flip-flop.
— digby (@digby56) September 8, 2024
Whether he ultimately gets 48 or 45 percent of the vote, Trump having this level of support is evidence of a profoundly sick society https://t.co/ottWqE7m91
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 8, 2024
CBS News Battleground-state estimates
Wisconsin – ? Harris 51-49%
Nevada – ? Harris 50-48%
Michigan – ? Harris 50-49%
Arizona – ? Harris 50-49%
Pennsylvania – ? Tie 50-50%
North Carolina – ? Tie 49-49%
Georgia – ? Trump 50-49%
NE-2 – ? Harris 51-46%Estimates updated on…
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
Exactly. If these polls are correct this is the biggest racial/generational realignment since at least 1964-1984, maybe since 1924-1936.
In one election cycle.
Not showing up in any election for any other office.
And unacknowledged by pollsters as the earthquake it would be. https://t.co/1tCqnO90Z7
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 8, 2024
What polls are good for:
NYT says nearly 1/3 of voters want to know more about Kamala Harris – especially young, Black, and Latino voters
If you support Kamala, share some info about her and her plans with people in your life today.
For example:
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) September 8, 2024
Biden was down 8 in this same poll.
Changing candidates according to this poll has caused a 7 point swing. https://t.co/gY1MDFcK1n
— Armando (@ArmandoNDK) September 8, 2024
The Electoral College favors Democrats now https://t.co/qHJNsq9aNF
— Armando (@ArmandoNDK) September 8, 2024
Just one little note on that "NYT" poll – if we win 18-29 by one point Trump's getting 400+ EVs. So seriously, your "fear" is embarrassing. Just move TF on. It's actually a perfectly decent poll for Harris. Next!
— Tom Watson (@tomwatson) September 8, 2024
I’m not upset, Evan. It’s well-known that my analysis and forecasts don’t rely on polls. I am observing a collapse in Trump’s support, particularly among women, Republican, and Independent voters. I project VP Harris will win Florida by a margin of 117,500 to 500,000 votes. https://t.co/gSZw1BLVWr
— Christopher Bouzy (spoutible.com/cbouzy) (@cbouzy) September 8, 2024
Let me put it this way: There are no meaningful poll results until you find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 40, because they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.
— Andrea Junker (@Strandjunker) September 8, 2024
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