If Arsenal lose to Tottenham they have one game to save their season – and it’s against Man City seven days later
PREMIER LEAGUE titles aren’t won in September.
But they can be lost. And that is what Arsenal fans – and perhaps even boss Mikel Arteta – may be starting to fear.
Because if the Gunners fail to beat local rivals Tottenham on Sunday, they will be under huge pressure to win against title rivals City at the Etihad a week later.
And defeat by Pep Guardiola’s side would put Arsenal up to eight points behind City with only five games gone.
Which, given the fact that Guardiola’s winning machine tends to hit absolute top gear only in the second half of the season, would feel like an almost impossible gap to close.
The injury to captain Martin Odegaard which is likely to keep him out of both big Premier League games, either side of the awkwardly-scheduled Champions League trip to Atalanta, underlines the inferiority of Arsenal’s squad.
In the summer transfer window, the Gunners added cover in key positions: Riccardo Calafiori in defence, Raheem Sterling on the wing and Mikel Merino in midfield.
It was very unfortunate that Merino suffered a significant injury in his first training session, especially with Declan Rice out of the North London derby because of suspension.
Jorginho is a decent deputy to play alongside Thomas Partey, at least.
But the problem is that Arteta has no-one who can replace Odegaard’s qualities at a high enough level in attacking midfield (although it might have been less challenging if Emile Smith Rowe had not been sold).
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You can argue that there are very few players in the world who could.
But consider how City skipper coped, despite losing captain Kevin De Bruyne for half of last season.
De Bruyne featured in only 18 Premier League matches. It is true that City lost three games during the time he was sidelined with a hamstring problem and Arsenal streaked ahead.
But over the course of the season, it did not matter. Julian Alvarez, in particular, and City’s star-studded squad in general, were able to contribute enough that the Belgian’s lack of gametime did not stop them winning another title.
After a De Bruyne-less City side went down 1-0 at Aston Villa on December 6, they did not lose another game, winning 19 of their 23 remaining fixtures.
Don’t forget, either, that Erling Haaland missed a handful of games at the turn of the year. Fortunately for Guardiola, they were mostly against lower-level opposition and City won four out of five.
Which brings us to another issue – luck.
No-one is saying that Odegaard will be unavailable nearly as long as De Bruyne was. But the quirks of the fixture list – or a conspiracy, if you’re a particularly rabid Arsenal fan – mean his ankle problem has come at a really bad time.
You can still see a Gunners side without Rice and Odegaard finding a way to beat Spurs.
Riccardo Calafiori is also doubtful after the Italy defender was forced off during Friday’s Nations League match against France with a calf problem.
But the absence of Odegaard from the Etihad, where Arsenal have not won a league game since January 2015, would be a massive blow to their chances.
Looking at it the opposite way, Arteta was very fortunate with injuries last season.
Rice and Odegaard were among six players to start at least 34 of the 38 Premier League games, with William Saliba playing every single minute. Another four players made at least 30 appearances as starters or subs.
That good fortune appears to have run out.
Meanwhile, the signs are Liverpool might well emerge as City’s biggest challengers.
The Reds have a pretty kind run of league fixtures between now and October 27, when they are due to face Arsenal at the Emirates.
The longer Odegaard is out, the bigger the potential gap by then.
Arteta needs his full squad to step up, on Sunday and in the coming weeks as the dual challenge of competing in the Premier League and Champions League resumes.
If they do not, after two seasons of fading in the final straight of the title race, Arsenal could be all but out of it while there are still plenty of leaves on the trees.