Kurtenbach: How the 49ers will beat the Vikings (and how it could all go wrong)

The beauty of a short week is that football is back before you can even catch your breath following the last game.

For the players and coaches of the 49ers, that’s not a good thing, though.

Game No. 2 on the season takes the 49ers to Minnesota, a glass house of horrors for the Niners last season, for a sneaky-excellent matchup with the Vikings.

Here’s how I see the 49ers winning on Sunday. And how they can drop the game, as well:

How the 49ers win

They do the same thing as last week

Football doesn’t have to be complicated.

Inside zone, outside zone, and Jordan Mason consistently picking the best lanes to run — it was the formula for the 49ers on Monday night football, and it shouldn’t change for at least the next four games with Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve.

“The only good thing that came out of [McCaffrey’] not playing [Monday] is that our playbook shrinks a little bit, which I’m always a fan of,” tight end George Kittle said.

And a small playbook is not a problem.

Especially in September, which is, effectively, the team’s preseason after an ineffective training camp.

It’s also a win for the Niners’ offensive line, which is an effective run-blocking unit at the moment, but provides serious question marks on pass protection (outside of left tackle Trent Williams.)

The Niners had a fullback or second tight end on the field for 82 percent of offensive snaps against the Jets. They told New York what they were going to do — run it right at them — and they were still able to do it to the tune of 147 yards on the ground for Mason.

No player saw more stacked boxes (eight or more players) last week than Mason, but it was no problem. Running off the right end (typically a tight end), Mason rushed for 8.1 yards per clip. Off the behind of rookie right guard Dominick Puni, that number jumped to 8.3 yards on three attempts.

There’s no reason for the 49ers to deviate from Monday’s game plan. If the Vikings can stop it with their dynamic, chaotic defense, the Niners can adjust, but the best route to the end zone is to run it there, and the Niners have yet to hit any roadblocks in that department.

And looking at the Vikings’ defensive personnel, I don’t think they will see one on Sunday. Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores might try to disguise everything his 11 are doing, but you can’t window-dress your way out of hat-on-a-hat football.

A vengeful Brock Purdy

Purdy — without Deebo Samuel and Williams, and perhaps concussed, it should be noted — had one of his worst performances as a pro against the Vikings last season. Flores’ aggressive defensive looks had the then-second-year quarterback a bit flustered.

But Purdy is the kind of quarterback who lingers on failures and less than a season later, he’s been handed a shot at redemption.

Even if San Francisco can run the ball well, the game will still require Purdy to play strong situational football—picking up third-down conversions and capitalizing on scoring chances. In those moments, Flores will throw his best at the 24-year-old. Will he be ready?

I’m betting yes. He rarely makes the same mistake twice.

“It was a good experience last year and there’s some things I had to learn from. I had a year of film and stuff and this week of practice, so we’re excited for it,” Purdy said.

How the 49ers lose

Mind matched

While the Niners’ Week 1 performance resulted in a perfect outcome, it was hardly a perfect performance.

The Jets had a quarterback who refused to move, a running back who couldn’t see the holes that developed in front of him, and two players — Javon Kinlaw and Sauce Gardner — who couldn’t stand up for themselves when the Niners ran at them play after play.

The Niners’ victory was as much a testament to the team’s coaching as it was to the players who executed the plan. Kyle Shanahan’s lapped Jets offensive coordinator, the anything-but-innovative Nathaniel Hackett. Meanwhile, first-year defensive coordinator Nick Sorenesen’s organized defense was never really challenged on its weak points.

That same truth will not apply on Sunday.

Vikings head coach and offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell deserves the same kind of “mastermind” status as Shanahan. He will see that Niners’ weak-side linebacker De’Vondre Campbell is more than a step slower than his All-Pro heyday, and will attack a Niners’ safety core that is still unproven.

And with Aaron Jones in the backfield and the world’s best wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, O’Connell has the kind of arsenal to hit the targets. Expect a steady diet of digs from Jefferson, challenging the space between the Niners’ linebackers and safeties, and plenty of runs to whatever side Nick Bosa isn’t patrolling from Jones, as well as more screen, swing, and dump-off passes than you can count — ideally (from the Vikings’ standpoint) towards No. 59 and away from No. 54, the All-World Fred Warner.

It’s all easier said than done, but O’Connell has been getting it done — no matter who his quarterback is — since he took over in Minnesota.

Down For the Count

The big number for the 49ers’ defense in Week 1 wasn’t a yardage or catch number — it was 51.

That’s the number of defensive snaps the Niners played against the Jets.

And a good portion of those came when the game was already over.

That low play count allowed the Niners to keep Nick Bosa (48 snaps) fresh. The game script gave them the freedom to move in some depth players with impunity.

But such a limited workload will not be the norm, and the Vikings will certainly try to go on long drives; that’s a big issue on the Niners’ defensive line, where depth is a serious issue.

The introduction of free-agent pickup Yetur Gross-Matos might mitigate this a bit at defensive end, but the Niners’ second-string players along the line do not appear ready to provide a positive impact, leaving Sorensen and defensive line coach Kris Kocurek with a tough decision — keep top players in, despite fatigue, or roll with that depth?

The 49ers will win this game, handily, if they can consistently pressure Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. Will they be capable of doing so — early in the season, on a short week — in the fourth quarter of what could be a close game?

PREDICTION

49ers 27 – Vikings 22

This is still a league defined by head coaches and quarterbacks. While I see little difference between the men with the headsets, I’ll take Purdy with a chip on his shoulder (and going against a weak secondary) over Darnold, who looked great against an awful Giants defense in Week 1 that gave him nearly three seconds to throw on every pass. That formula won’t hold up for the Vikings, and Darnold will throw the game to San Francisco.