Dwindling Western influence amid uncertainty in the Sahel region

The Sahel region has become a focal point of deepening polarization between pro-Western "moderate" states and nations seeking independence from neo-colonial influence, relying instead on non-African powers like Russia. On July 6, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formalized their partnership by founding the "Confederation of Sahel States" (AES), a union of military-led regimes that reject the pressures from the West, particularly from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 

The timing of the AES announcement, just a day before the ECOWAS summit in Nigeria, was no coincidence. It highlighted the growing divide in West Africa. For the U.S. and EU, this development signals a complex geopolitical shift, raising questions about regional stability and influence in the Sahel. These nations, all now under military rule following coups that ousted pro-Western governments, want to chart a new course. 

The AES has emerged not just as a confederation but as a defense pact — a signal that the days of reliance on Western powers are fading fast. Mali's early exit from the G5 Sahel in 2022 foreshadowed this rupture, with Burkina Faso and Niger following suit in 2023.

The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is a response to frustrations over how Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger feel they have been treated by the African Union and the ECOWAS. These nations argue that both organizations have failed to provide sufficient support in their fight against jihadist insurgencies. More pressing, however, is their critique of ECOWAS, which they claim has been unduly influenced by foreign powers, particularly France. Sanctions imposed by these organizations, they assert, have only worsened the suffering of their populations.

U.S. troops have wrapped up their withdrawal from the base in Niger’s capital, Niamey, marking a significant step in Washington’s recalibration of its presence in West Africa. 

This exit marks a broader disengagement by Western forces in West Africa, triggered by the military coups that have strained relations between the breakaway countries and the West. It also denotes the broader shifts in the region, where anti-Western sentiment and alliances with non-Western powers, particularly Russia, have taken root. As the Sahel region pivots toward closer ties with Russia, the U.S. is seriously reconsidering its engagement with the Sahel, which has been a critical hub for combating al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS)-affiliated groups.

The increasing animosity toward former colonial powers, particularly France, has already led to a complete exit of French troops from Mali in 2022, and later from Niger and Burkina Faso. As the region reorients its alliances, the U.S. departure signals a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, raising questions about the future of counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel.

Will the AES deliver on its promise of self-reliance, or will it crumble under the weight of its own ambitions? This newly minted alliance, deeply critical of France's lingering influence in the region, also highlights the dissolution of the G5 Sahel in 2023, a security framework that once held promise. 

So far, the alliance's launch has been met with mixed reactions. While some view it as a bold step toward autonomy, others are skeptical of its long-term stability. The AES isn't just a defense pact; it's a broader attempt to reshape regional dynamics. The confederation’s plans include establishing a regional bank and stabilization fund, aiming to stimulate economic growth and attract foreign investment. This move reflects the member states' desire for self-reliance, positioning the AES as an alternative to traditional frameworks.

The creation of the AES poses critical questions for the West African Sahel, a region already burdened by insecurity, poverty and environmental degradation. This confederation faces significant challenges, including its landlocked geography and the economic uncertainties triggered by its exit from the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).

Economically, the confederation’s withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) could lead to considerable isolation. ECOWAS plays a crucial role in regional trade and financial integration, and exiting this bloc risks losing access to larger markets and encountering trade barriers. This economic isolation might be compounded by sanctions or trade embargoes from neighboring states or international entities disapproving of the confederation’s unconventional formation and military governance. 

ECOWAS, once a cornerstone of West African cooperation, has seen its relevance called into question, especially after the defection of these three states. With the AES positioning itself as an alternative to existing frameworks, the region’s future may be shaped by the confederation’s ability to deliver results where other organizations have fallen short.

While the alliance promises strategic autonomy and economic synergy, its ability to improve living standards remains uncertain. Military regimes in these countries, despite having had ample time to initiate reforms, have yet to deliver tangible benefits to their citizens.

Mali, in particular, serves as a case in point—its leadership has struggled to meet the socio-economic expectations of its people. This situation prompts a deeper inquiry: Are these governments using their external challenges as justifications for their shortcomings, or are they genuinely attempting to break free from the constraints imposed by powerful regional and international actors? The confederation's success will depend not only on its ability to foster internal cohesion but also on managing the complex web of geopolitical pressures —this time from Moscow.

Russia is now intensifying its grip on the Sahel, consolidating its influence across several key states while casting its gaze toward new alliances beyond the region. This ambitious strategy sets the stage for a potential clash with other global powers, as Moscow seeks to expand its reach. The next front in this geopolitical contest could very well emerge along the coastal states of West Africa, where the stakes are high and the competition fierce. In this unfolding drama, the Sahel is not just a theater of conflict but a pivotal chessboard in a broader struggle for influence.

While ECOWAS has sought to heal this growing divide and bring back the three countries, appointing Senegal’s newly elected President Bassirou Diomaye Faye as a mediator, Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traoré has been unrelenting. He labeled ECOWAS leadership as “house slaves,” accusing them of prioritizing Western economic interests over the well-being of their citizens.

For the U.S., this new geopolitical landscape in the Sahel underscores the complex and shifting dynamics in the region, where old alliances are dissolving and new ones are emerging in defiance of traditional Western influence.

Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.