How Harris could win big: The numbers

This is part one of a three-part series looking at how various factors in the presidential race could lead to Kamala Harris winning big this year. The next two parts will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Kamala Harris’ campaign “leaked” the state of their internal polling to CNN last Friday.

“Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate,” CNN reported. “North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which [President Joe] Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.”

To be clear, the Harris campaign isn’t saying it’s losing. It’s what we already knew: Polling is extremely tight, but Harris has a slight edge in the swing states she needs to get to the winning 270 electoral votes—plus a real shot to score a few other states. 

Ideally, we wouldn’t have a close election. However, conditions are also forming that could—assuming we all do our part, of course—mean Harris wins big this November.