Clarence Maclin (‘Sing Sing’) moves to first place in Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actor

After weeks in second place in Gold Derby’s odds for Best Supporting Actor, Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) has moved to the top spot, based off the combined predictions of thousands of our registered users. Can his breakthrough performance earn him the honor on his first try? He’s got quite a story.

“Sing Sing” is inspired by the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at the title prison in New York, where inmates are introduced to theater. Maclin was actually one of those inmates, spending 17 years at the facility, and he plays a version of himself in the film, so he embodies its redemptive themes both personally and creatively.

But if you look at our graph of the trajectory of the Best Supporting Actor race (scroll down to see it), it’s less that Maclin has risen and more that former front-runner Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) has fallen, dipping to fourth place overall. “The Piano Lesson” had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival on August 31, and so far it has a perfect score on Rotten Tomatoes. Jackson was called “the anchor for the entire piece” by The Wrap critic Carla Renata. But other critics have singled out his co-star Danielle Deadwyler‘s performance as the film’s highlight, which perhaps explains why Jackson has lost some ground.

As of this writing Jackson still has a slight edge with the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed for their predictions; eight are betting on him to win, compared to five who say it’ll be Maclin. Meanwhile, three Gold Derby Editors apiece are predicting Maclin, Jackson and Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist“). Where Maclin has truly taken off is with our Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24, where a plurality rank him as their number-one choice.

This race continues to fluctuate, though. Several Experts are also predicting Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”). Pearce has come on strong since “Brutalist” bowed in Venice. And journalists have yet to see Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown“) and Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), to name a few.We’ll see if Maclin can maintain his current lead all the way through Oscar night.