7 NBA Rookie of the Year candidates, ranked by likelihood of who will win award

Let’s rank the candidates for the 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

The 2024 NBA Draft class was always a bit underwhelming, but that should make this year’s Rookie of the Year race even more wide open. The lack of a consensus top prospect a la Victor Wembanyama last year means that almost anyone can make a run to ROY this season, draft position be damned.

Some of the potential favorites are already eliminated before the season even begins. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Nikola Topic is out for the year with a torn ACL. Denver Nuggets forward DaRon Holmes could have been a sleeper for the award, but he’s also going to miss this season with an Achilles tear. It’s hard to imagine Sacramento Kings guard Devin Carter winning it after spending the first part of his rookie year recovering from shoulder surgery.

There were a few names who just missed the cut for this list. Portland Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan, the No. 6 overall pick, should be about as pro-ready as anyone in the class, but his impact is far greater on defense than offense, and it’s hard to see him scoring enough to actually win this award. Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis is another strong candidate, but his struggles with scoring efficiency could limit him to start his career.

Here are the most likely candidates for 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year, ranked.

7. Rob Dillingham, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

Awards tend to go to players who can score in bunches, and Rob Dillingham fits that description. The former Kentucky guard is a dynamic long-range shooter who should have no trouble adjusting to the NBA line, and he’s also a gifted facilitator for teammates. The Wolves made an ultra aggressive move up the board to select Dillingham, and he figures to get a shot at backup point guard minutes in the regular season. The fact that the Wolves should be very good will only help Dillingham’s candidacy. He’s going to be one of the skinniest players in the NBA next season and will almost certainly struggle defensively, but Dillingham’s penchant for putting the ball in the basket makes him a decent bet for the award. When in doubt, go with a Kentucky guard to exceed expectations in the NBA.

6. Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat

Ware looked outstanding in Las Vegas Summer League by flashing his elite combination of size and athleticism. At 7’1 with a nearly 7’5 wingspan, Ware can jump out of the gym to hammer home dunks and block shots, and he even showcased a little shooting range in college at Indiana, too. Ware dropped to the No. 15 pick in part because teams were worried he didn’t always play hard. In that respect, landing in Heat Culture should be exactly what Ware needs to get his motor up. It’s not clear yet if Ware will be able to share minutes with Bam Adebayo as a rookie, but he should get enough minutes to have a shot at the award either way.

5. Bub Carrington, G, Washington Wizards

Washington traded into the last pick of the lottery to select Carrington, the youngest American prospect in the 2024 draft. The 6’5 guard showed impressive pull-up shot-making ability at Pitt, and he looked promising enough in Las Vegas Summer League to earn real minutes as a rookie. The Wizards are going to be absolutely terrible, but there’s legitimate utility in letting Carrington get reps as a lead ball handler as the team chases its Cooper Flagg dreams. Washington could lose too much for Carrington to have a shot at the award, but his scoring just might be tantalizing enough to force his way into the discussion.

4. Zaccharie Risacher, F, Atlanta Hawks

Risacher is the rare No. 1 overall draft pick who doesn’t project to be a primary option offensively or a dominant rim protector. Instead, the Hawks took the French forward for his off-ball shooting ability and his quality perimeter defense at 6’9. A player like Risacher needs someone else to create scoring opportunities for him, and Atlanta has one of the best in the business in that regard in Trae Young. I wouldn’t expect Risacher to put up crazy scoring numbers, but if he hits 40 percent of his threes and helps the Hawks get into the playoff picture, he could be a trendy vote in a weak class.

3. Stephon Castle, G, San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs will always be Victor Wembanyama’s team, but he can’t carry the franchise to relevancy in the Western Conference all by himself. San Antonio entered the lottery with two picks in the top-8, but walked away with only one player in Castle. The former UConn Husky is a big, strong guard who will defend any assignment, crash the glass, and finish scoring opportunities through contact in the paint. San Antonio didn’t add many pieces over the summer outside of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, so Castle should see a sizable role. His tenacious defense and off-ball cutting will make him a valuable asset next to Wembanyama.

2. Reed Sheppard, G, Houston Rockets

Sheppard is extraordinarily competent at some many aspect of basketball. The No. 3 overall pick looked like the best shooter in this draft class during his freshman year at Kentucky, showcasing a pure shooting stroke with real range and versatility. He also has a sixth sense for forcing turnovers with razor-sharp hands and the feel for knowing how to pick his spots. Sheppard is below the typical NBA thresholds for size and athleticism in the backcourt, but surrounded by a team full of freak athletes in Houston, he should fit in just find by spacing the floor and helping generate transition opportunities. The Rockets have a potentially deep rotation, but it’s going to be hard to keep Sheppard off the floor.

1. Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies

Edey was the most productive player in his draft class by far after asserting himself as one of the most decorated players in college basketball history during his four years at Purdue. It was surprising to see the 7’4 giant get drafted No. 9 overall, but it’s easy to see the Grizzlies’ vision for the selection. Memphis needed a center after moving on from Steven Adams, ideally one who could crash the glass and set bone-crushing screens for Ja Morant. Edey checks both boxes while also being a much more skilled finisher than Adams ever was. Edey will have limitations with his quickness and ability to read the floor as a passer, but if he can stay healthy, he should have the best combination of role and production for any rookie this year.