Climate Change Leaving A Bitter Taste In World’s Coffee Supply – Analysis

By Thang Nam Do

Every morning, millions of people around the world find solace in a cup of coffee.Butthis cherished daily routine is under siege as climate change drives up costs and diminishes the flavour of coffee — and Asia’s major coffee producers find themselves on the front lines.

Southeast Asia in particular is a powerhouse in the global coffee market, with Vietnam and Indonesia being the world’s secondandfourthbiggestcoffee producersrespectively. In 2023, Vietnam produced29.1 million60kilogrambags of coffee while Indonesia contributed11.85 million. Other countries in the region such as Thailand, Laos and the Philippines are also increasing their output.

But rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts aretaking a tollon coffee crops. Coffee plants arehighly sensitiveto climatic changes and the increasing heat can impair their growth, reduce yields and lower the quality of the beans.Pests like the coffee berry borer, which thrive in warmer conditions, are further exacerbating the situation, leading to significant crop losses. By 2050, up to 50per centof land suitable forcoffee cultivationmay be lost due to climate change.

The inconvenient reality is that key coffee-producing regions located in the Coffee Belt —between 20 degrees north and 30 degrees south of the equator —are among themost vulnerableto climate change. This puts the global coffee supply at increasing risk.

The long-term implications of climate change for the coffee industry are concerning. Asclimate conditions worsen, the supply of coffee from Southeast Asia and other key regions is likely to shrink. This decrease in supply coincides with a rising global demand for coffee, driven by population growth and the beverage’s enduring popularityas a health-enhancing stimulantinpeople’sincreasingly hectic lives.TheGlobal Coffee Market Compound Annual Growth Rate for 2024–32 isprojected at5.4per cent.

Economic repercussions are inevitable. As coffee yields decline, prices will rise, impacting the entire market. The price of robusta coffee hasnearly doubledsince early 2023 mainly due to drought in Vietnam. While some coffee producers might benefit from higher prices in the short term, the long-term outlook is bleak. Persistent climate challenges could render coffee farming unsustainable, forcing small farmers to abandon cultivation.

Theimpact of climate changeon coffee is not confined to Southeast Asia. Latin America and Africa, other major coffee-producing regions, are facing similar challenges. The combined effect could significantly reduce the global coffee supply.

Rising pricesare unlikely toattract new farmers. Growing coffee under harsh conditions such as droughts would require significant capital investment in infrastructure like irrigation systems. Adapting by diversifying crops and practicing agroforestry is crucial but requires resources that many small farmers lack.

As supply diminishes and prices climb, consumers worldwide will feel the strain. Sustainable practices can support production, but at increasing costs. What was once a simple pleasure may become a costly indulgence, with coffee quality declining.Millions in developing economies will suffer as small-scale farmers produce about 70 per cent of the world’s coffee, with over 120 million peoplerelying on coffee productionfor their livelihood.

Technological advancements offer hope —breeding new coffee varietiescould increase yields while reducing land competition.Butchallenges persist. Small-scale farmers often lack information on the long-term performance of hybrids. High seedling cost and delayed returns deter investment and expanding hybrid nurseries to reach all coffee-growing areas, especially remote regions, will require significant resources and time.

Climate change is reshaping the coffee industry, with far-reaching consequences for both producers and consumers. Governments, international organisations, and major coffee companies need tocoordinate effortsto help coffee farmers adapt. This includes investing in the research and development of climate-resilient coffee varieties, providing financial and technical assistance to farmers, promoting practices like intercropping under shade trees, and improving infrastructure to manage water resources more sustainably.

Consumers can also play a role. Supporting sustainable coffee brands and advocating for stronger climate policies are small but significant steps. Evenpeople whodon’t drink coffee can help mitigate climate change by pressuring governments to adopt stronger climate mitigation policies, using public transport, reducing single-use plastics, and buying energy-efficient products.

It’s time to reconsider our morning routine and recognise the complex web of factors that bring coffee to our tables. Climate change threatens more than just our caffeine fix—it endangers livelihoods, economies, and a cherished global tradition. Action must be taken now, before our coffee cups run dry.

• About the author: Thang Nam Do is a Fellow in the Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific Grand Challenge Program at the Crawford School of Public Policy and the Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, The Australian National University.
• Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum