NFL Bets, Week 4: Say his name and he appears, we believe in Kirk Cousins

It’s official. We downgraded our Rhode Island Scumbag.

The original Scumbag, FTW’s betting “expert” was an early season savant, tossing out hot records and double-digit unit wins in September. Granted, he’d squander all that by December, but still. RIS 1.0 was an inferno while Oktoberfests were still in season, drawing up lines Vegas hadn’t yet caught up to.

When he passed the mantle on to a fellow dirtbag in the same fantasy league, the results didn’t follow. After three weeks he’s hit on a third of his bets and is down a robust seven units. He might as well have a glowing neon sign hanging from his neck that says “FADE.” And if you’ll follow us to a very stupid Gofundme, god willing, we can make that happen.

My picks have been a bit safer, if mostly useless after two straight weeks of .500 calls. Let’s see if we can each get back on track. Rhode Island Scumbag picks and commentary for Week 4 of the NFL season are in blockquotes below. My non-scumbag picks follow.

Another tough week in the books for the Scumbag. Pittsburgh once again bailed me out from what was otherwise a rough Sunday.

The Tampa Bay loss was tough to watch. They simply got stomped. New Orleans found a way to make me resent them again, with an offensive no show at home against what was a compromised Philadelphia Eagles team. On top of the losses on Sunday, Chinz pulled off the win in our RISL matchup despite Jayden Daniels doing his best to make it interesting late Monday night [Ed. note: Zack Moss garbage time touchdowns, baby].

However, I refuse to get down on myself. Chinz “the expert” isn’t running away with the competition so far. I’m focused on keeping myself within striking distance and look to gain some ground this week on our responsible wagering advisor.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints (one unit)

Atlanta gets to return home after a close contest with the Kansas City Referees and welcome a possibly compromised Saints team. I say possibly because as of this writing Alvin Kamara has failed to practice and may be out for the week.

If that is the case, I don’t see a bounce back week for New Orleans in the cards. Atlanta’s defense held up against the Chiefs, and should be able to answer the bell again. If New Orleans sells out to contain Bijan Robinson like the Chiefs did, Kirk Cousins could take advantage with his excellent pass catchers (Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts). Ultimately, the Falcons should have the firepower to outlast New Orleans in a close one.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Green Bay Packers (1.5 units)

The Vikings are one of only two teams that are undefeated against the spread in the NFL. They now go to Green Bay as two/three point underdogs (depending on your book). Brian Flores has his defense humming. Sam Darnold has proved he is more than capable of running a competent NFL offense. It sounds like Jordan Addison will be back this week as well.

Green Bay is coming off a big win in Tennessee, and Malik Willis filled in admirably for Jordan Love. However this Minnesota defense just took care of business against last season’s offensive rookie of the year. If Jordan Love is still out, I like the Vikings to cover in this one. Even if Love is back, I’ll take the chance that Minnesota’s defense can weather the storm.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Indianapolis Colts (1.5 units)

I am sticking with the saving grace of my early season, the Steelers defense. Originally, I was going to take Washington getting 3.5 points at Arizona, but the sharp money is on Arizona while the public backs Washington. I’d rather just stay away from that one and stick with what has worked so far.

Pittsburgh joins Minnesota as the only other team undefeated against the spread. I know I’m tempting fate here, but I think the Steelers can once again take care of business, albeit in a tough matchup on the road. Anthony Richardson has been suspect at best with his ball protection and consistency [Ed. note: the league’s least efficient quarterback, but there’s stuff to like!].

Both teams are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, so there isn’t a massive advantage for either team there. Justin Fields looks like he’s gaining some confidence as the weeks go by. Ultimately, I’ll stick with Pittsburgh until it gives me a reason not to. The game should be tight, but the Steelers should win the turnover battle and therefore the game.

Last week: 1-2, -1 units
Season to date: 3-6 (.333), -7 units

My non-Scumbag bets for Week 4: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans -5.5 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles (one unit each)

The Saints offensive line is hurting, as is Alvin Kamara. After punching above its weight class to open the season, New Orleans is looking more like we expected. Meanwhile, Atlanta is still rising toward its potential. I don’t love backing a still not-quite-mobile Kirk Cousins, but he should be able to get the job done at home against a defense that ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to pressure rate.

Counterpoint: anytime the Scumbag (either version) and I agree on a pick it disintegrates. If you’re gonna fade anything from this article, that’s your huckleberry.

Houston got wrecked last week but has the personnel and coaching to respond. Jacksonville only has the first third of that equation. I’m gonna keep betting against the Jags until they show signs of life or they stop getting less than a touchdown on the road.

The last bet is a tough one, since the Bucs got pantsed last week. But Jalen Hurts has been getting pantsed all year (and much of 2023) and may be without his top three targets on the road.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, should get Vita Vea back in the lineup, which makes the runs up the middle that have been endemic to Saquon Barkley’s success so much more difficult. The Buccaneers run defense has been grim this year, but a healthy 350-pound boulder in the middle should help immensely.

As far as leans, I also considered the Commanders and Cardinals UNDER 50 points and New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 40.5. Ultimately, I scrapped the first one because of electric young quarterbacks and the second because neither the Pats nor the Niners crack the top 23 when it comes to defensive efficiency so far this season. But if you’re feeling it, hell yeah.

Last week: 2-2, 0 units
Season to date: 5-3 (.625), +2 units