Cellular dynamics shape recombination frequency in coronaviruses

by Cassandra M. Bonavita, Heather L. Wells, Simon J. Anthony

Coronavirus genomes have evolutionary histories shaped extensively by recombination. Yet, how often recombination occurs at a cellular level, or the factors that regulate recombination rates, are poorly understood. Utilizing experimental co-infections with pairs of genetically distinct coronaviruses, we found that recombination is both frequent and rare during coinfection. Recombination occurred in every instance of co-infection yet resulted in relatively few recombinant RNAs. By integrating a discrete-time Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, we found that rates of recombination are determined primarily by rates of cellular co-infection, rather than other possible barriers such as RNA compartmentalization. By staggering the order and timing of infection with each virus we also found that rates of co-infection are themselves heavily influenced by genetic and ecological mechanisms, including superinfection exclusion and the relative fitness of competing viruses. Our study highlights recombination as a potent yet regulated force: frequent enough to ensure a steady influx of mutations but also infrequent enough to maintain genomic integrity. As recombination is thought to be an important driver of host-switching and disease emergence, our study provides new insights into the factors that regulate coronavirus recombination and evolution more broadly.