Braves series preview: A playoff atmosphere
It’s still the regular season, but these two teams are fighting for a post-season spot.
The Atlanta Braves won a title in 2021, and have enjoyed back-to-back 100+ win seasons since then. But this year they have been ravaged by injuries, most notably an ACL injury to Ronald Acuña Jr. that ended his season back in May. Star pitcher Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Austin Riley are also out, but the team has gotten some other key players back.
Kansas City Royals (85-74) vs. Atlanta Braves (86-71) at Truist Park, Cumberland, GA
Royals: 4.59 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 4.01 runs allowed/game (6th)
Braves: 4.38 runs scored/game (15th), 3.78 runs allowed/game (2nd)
The Braves got off to a terrific 26-13 start, but have been just 60-58 since then. They currently stand just one game back of the Mets and Diamondbacks for the last playoff spot in the National League. The race was thrown into chaos this week when the last two games of the Mets/Braves series were postponed to a doubleheader on Monday due to inclement weather from Hurricane Helene. The Braves have to beat the Mets to retain their head-to-head tiebreaker, but they also have to win these games against the Royals to ensure they don’t get eliminated before they even get a chance to play the Mets. So the entire baseball world could have their eyes on Friday’s game between the Royals and Braves.
The Braves are fourth in baseball in home runs and Marcell Ozuna’s 39 homers are fifth-most in baseball. Braves hitters have not done their damage at home however, just 39 percent of their home runs have come at Truist Park and they are averaging just 3.9 runs-per-game at home compared to 4.8 on the road.
Ramón Laureano has revived his career since signing with the Braves, and he is hitting .319/.351/.550 against right-handers this year. Former Royals slugger Jorge Soler is hitting .237/.348/.489 with 9 home runs in 44 games since rejoining the Braves, who he won World Series MVP honors with in 2021.
Catcher Sean Murphy has been in a tailspin, hitting .119/.211/.224 in his last 19 games. Jarred Kelenic is hitting just .176/.247/.338 since the All-Star break. Former Royals speedster Whit Merrifield is hitting .248/.348/.336 in 41 games since joining Atlanta.
The Braves have stolen the fewest bases in baseball and have made the fourth-fewest outs on the bases. Matt Olson is a Gold Glover at first base, Gio Urshela has been a defensive upgrade at third since being signed, and Michael Harris III is terrific in center.
The starting pitching matchup situation is very fluid at this point. We know Brady Singer will face Max Fried on Friday evening. The Braves have not announced starters for Saturday or Sunday, but manager Brian Snitker has said they will use Chris Sale when they are facing elimination with the hopes they can save him for the Mets series.
Reynaldo López is ready to come off the Injured List, but he may be used out of the pen or for the Mets series. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach and veteran Charlie Morton were originally scheduled to pitch this series, so I would guess they go the rest of the series unless Sale is needed. And of course, if the Royals clinch a playoff spot by Friday, they will likely rest Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans for the Wild Card round.
Fried is a three-time Gold Glove winner, was an All-Star this season, and is currently ninth in fWAR among National League starting pitchers and seventh in ERA. He has gone six or more innings in 18 of his 28 starts, including his last five outings. Lefties are hitting .321/.397/.455 against him, compared to .207/.273/.284 from righties. Opponents are hitting just .146 against his curveball and he has a 59 percent groundball rate, tops in baseball.
Schewellenbach is originally a second-round pick out of Nebraska (he was not in Alex Gordon’s wedding) and has been terrific in his rookie campaign. Since the All-Star break he has a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts. The right-hander has excellent command and has not issued more than three walks in a game all season. He throws a 96 mph four-seamer,r a slider, cutter, curve, splitter, and his sinker generates a 47 percent whiff rate.
Morton also relies heavily on a curve, throwing it 42 percent of the time, most in baseball. The 40-year-old has been much better at home with a 3.54 ERA at Truist compared to 4.75 on the road. His 45.9 percent groundball rate is seventh among starters. In five career starts against the Royals he is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA.
The Braves have a very good bullpen with a 3.30 ERA, the second-highest strikeout rate, and the second-lowest walk rate. They have the fewest appearances on zero days rest. Closer Raisel Iglesias has the third-most saves in the National League, converting 32-of-35 chances. He has allowed a 23.4 percent hard-hit rate, eighth-lowest among relievers. Joe Jiménez has one of the best sliders in the game with opponents hitting just .143 against it with a 40 percent whiff rate. Aaron Bummer has a 60 percent groundball rate, seventh-highest among relievers. Lefty Dylan Lee has a reverse split, and lefties have hit him well with a line of .270/.270/.487.
With Hurricane Helene hitting the southeast, baseball is a lower priority than everyone’s safety and wellbeing. The Royals have arrived in Atlanta safely, and the weather is clearing up to allow baseball to be played. Friday’s game could be an intense matchup with a lot on the line. The playoffs officially start next week, but this will be a playoff atmosphere this weekend.