Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming Defensive Player of the Year favorite and a bad bet to win
San Antonio Spurs sophomore big man Victor Wembanyama is undoubtedly one of the most promising defensive players in the world.
Wembanyama is a force to be reckoned with as a defender and the last time we saw him playing basketball, he was at the peak of his powers. He led all players in the Olympics in both blocks and steals, per RealGM, which is no easy accomplishment.
There is little doubt that he is already one of the best defensive players in the NBA and also perhaps the best young defender we have seen. Among qualified players in the database since 1973-74, via Stathead, the big man recorded the best Defensive Box Plus-Minus of anyone 22 years old or younger.
He finished sixth-best last season in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (via dunksandthrees) and third-best in Defensive LEBRON (via BBall-Index). He currently ranks seventh-best in Defensive DPM (via DARKO) as well.
It isn’t hard to imagine a world in which he gets better, too. He has reportedly gained 25 pounds since his rookie campaign, which should help him on the defensive end of the floor.
The average DPOY winner has recorded about 5.6 defensive win shares during the season in which they won the award, per our research. He finished with 4.4 as a rookie last season, so the improvement is hardly unfathomable.
But it won’t be an easy battle for Wembanyama because even though he is the overwhelming favorite at BetMGM , the odds are actually stacked up against him.
The favorites don’t win very often
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, oddsmakers have not done a great job of correctly predicting the Defensive Player of the Year.
Since the 2014-15 campaign, the preseason favorite has won Defensive Player of the Year just twice. Both times, that player was Rudy Gobert.
Over the past three years, the DPOY was someone who was not a top seven preseason favorite.
This is a bad value for Wembanyama
Wembanyama enters the season as the overwhelming favorite (-250) to win the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year.
That is an unprecedented implied probability for Wembanyama even relative to other preseason favorites. Take a look at historical precedent:
simply marveling at Wemby's current DPOY odds relative to former DPOY preseason favorites pic.twitter.com/Yqum7oCxw3
— Owen Phillips (@owenlhjphillips) October 3, 2024
That means an individual would have to bet $250 to win $100 if the Spurs star wins Defensive Player of the Year. The return just simply isn’t great!
Over the past ten seasons, no other preseason favorite has even approached that sort of expectation. The closest was when Draymond Green entered the year with +160 odds in 2017.
However, each winner since 2015 has had an average betting return of about 11-1.
Spurs’ 2023-24 defensive rating was poor
Last season, per NBA.com, the Spurs finished as one of the 10 worst defenses in the league.
That may not seem like a big deal at first blush, but the reality is that it actually matters quite a bit. Let’s take a look at all of the data available via NBA.com.
This tells us that the Defensive Player of the Year has only come from a team that finished in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating the previous season on two occasions: Kevin Garnett in 2008 and Tyson Chandler in 2012.
Both times, the player was acquired before the season began and was not on the roster the previous season.
Meanwhile, more than 80 percent of the other winners came from a team that finished top-10 in defensive rating during the prior campaign. This suggests it is likely very helpful to have an established history of a strong defense on the roster surrounding the player before he wins the award.
Wembanyama will play for a team that did not wildly overhaul their roster nor was he traded.
He is still so young
There is little worry about how much value he will bring on defense.
But he would be just 21 years old at the end of the upcoming season. All the youngest winners we have seen since the inception of the award are 23 years old, via Stathead.
The average winner of this award since it was introduced is 27.5 years old, per our research.
While he may win Defensive Player of the Year one day, this would be an unprecedented win for the sophomore big man. Certainly not one worth betting on with odds this short.