Picks of the Week: Washington, Cal and Arizona State well-positioned to cover (and win) in Week 6
There are 19 undefeated teams in major college football, but only eight — the great eight — are unbeaten and untied against the point spread.
Within the Power Four, three teams have perfect records against the spread: Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Brigham Young, according to teamrankings.com.
The Group of Five teams carrying perfect records into Week 6 games are San Jose State, Marshall, Eastern Michigan, UNLV and Army.
At the other end of the spectrum, October arrives with four teams winless against the point spread (with no ties, either): Kent State, Air Force and Wisconsin and Kansas, one of the most disappointing teams in the country.
Avoid that quartet at all costs. Or maybe not. After all, mean reversion is bound to take hold at some point.
To the picks …
Last week: 5-3
Season: 23-19
Five-star special: 2-3
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Iowa (+19.5) at Ohio State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The Hawkeyes’ knack for mucking it up, combined with Ohio State’s vulnerable situation — at home as a huge favorite with Oregon next week — should create a grinder for three quarters before the Buckeyes take control late. But not enough control to get to the high side of the spread. Pick: Iowa.
Alabama (-23.5) at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on SEC Network
Comment: Ultimate letdown situation for the Crimson Tide after the emotional win over Georgia and ascent to No. 1. And the Commodores, who took Missouri to overtime, are not awful. Pick: Vanderbilt.
Colorado State (+11) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Both teams have had two weeks to prepare, so there is no competitive advantage. The Rams are fairly stout against the run, which is OSU’s preferred means of moving the ball. A must-win game for the Beavers to make their bowl math work. And they will win, just not handily. Pick: Colorado State
USC (-8) at Minnesota
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: Feels like the Trojans will have one eye on Penn State’s visit next week and the other eye looking around Huntington Bank Stadium wondering why in the world they are playing a conference game in Minneapolis. And the Gophers, who lost in Ann Arbor by the same score as USC (27-24), are just good enough to make things interesting. Pick: Minnesota
Michigan (+2.5) at Washington
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: On the rare occasions the Wolverines venture across the Rockies during the regular season, the results have been suboptimal. Also, they have no passing game to speak of (115 yards per game). If the Huskies don’t implode with drive-killing penalties, they should do enough to escape with a victory. Pick: Washington
Kansas (+3) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: Major competitive advantage for the Sun Devils as the home team with two weeks to prepare and facing a visitor that’s 1-4 after losing a taxing game last weekend (to TCU). Also, the weather has been pleasant in Lawrence this week, while the thermometer should approach 110 degrees Saturday afternoon in Tempe. Ideal position for the Devils in every respect. Pick: Arizona State
Miami (-10) at Cal
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Like Arizona State, the Bears are perfectly positioned not only to cover the spread but to win outright: At home with an extra week to prepare against an opponent traveling across the country following a last-second victory over Virginia Tech. Also, Cal is quite familiar with Miami coach Mario Cristobal from his days at Oregon. Pick: Cal
Texas Tech (+6) at Arizona
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Arizona had its get-right game last week at Utah and should do as it pleases against the Red Raiders, who are wobbly defensively and were run off the field in their only road game thus far (at Washington State). The Wildcats are a level better. This should not be competitive in the fourth quarter. Pick: Arizona.
Straight-up winners: Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon State, USC, Washington, Arizona State, Cal, Arizona
Five-star special: Cal. The Hotline’s crack research staff can offer the following trend: The Bears covered the spread the last three times they faced Cristobal during his Oregon tenure (2019-21). They were underdogs in each instance and double-digit dogs twice. You’re welcome.
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