Will Milton make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane?
(NEXSTAR) — Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday, less than 24 hours after it became a Category 1 storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
In its Monday afternoon update, the National Hurricane Center said Milton is roughly 715 miles west-southwest of Tampa with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph.
Current modeling suggests Milton will make landfall at or near Tampa, which has not taken a direct hit from a hurricane in a century.
The question remains, though: When Milton makes landfall, will it still be a Category 5 storm?
If you're familiar with hurricanes (or have been watching live coverage of the storm), you may already know Milton is expected to weaken before hitting Florida.
Forecasting as of Monday afternoon predicts Hurricane Milton will likely be a major Category 3 storm when it reaches Florida. It is currently on track to reach the state's coast Wednesday evening, but that could vary by 6 to 12 hours either way, according to WFLA's chief meteorologist and climate specialist Jeff Berardelli.
There have only been four hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. as a Category 5 storm, NOAA records show:
- "Labor Day" in September 1935
- Camille in August 1969
- Andrew in August 1992
- Michael in October 2018
Hurricanes usually don't hold their Category 5 strength for more than a day. This, according to weather experts, is usually due to eyewall replacement cycles, or when a new eye replaces the former. Storms may become weaker in the process but can strengthen once a new eye forms.
Once a hurricane reaches colder water or land and has less of the warm ocean water to power it, the storm will weaken, NOAA explains.
Video: Satellite video shows Hurricane Milton on Monday
"Thankfully, once [Milton] interacts with the jet stream, it is going to encounter some wind shear, so it won't be nearly this strong," WFLA meteorologist Eric Stone said Monday after the storm reached Category 5 strength. "It is still going to be a major hurricane as it approaches [Florida's] west coast."
Forecasters have warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches in places.
WFLA is providing continuing coverage of Milton's progress, evacuation orders, and more.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.