Are hurricanes intensifying more rapidly than ever before?
(NEXSTAR) – Hurricane Milton intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the course of Monday morning as it progressed toward Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It was also expected to bring heavy rainfall and storm surges to parts of Florida before weakening and making landfall.
People living in the Gulf area’s most frequent hurricane paths, meanwhile, are no stranger to storms. But the rapid intensification of these storms? That might be relatively new.
Rapid intensification is defined by the National Hurricane Center as an increase of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in maximum sustained winds within a 24-hour period, which can mean a jump of two categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
As it currently stands, rapid intensification has been observed in about 80% of all major hurricanes in the North Atlantic “and nearly all category four and five hurricanes,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said earlier this year.
Scientists have also found evidence to suggest that storms are more frequently experiencing rapid intensification when compared to cyclones in years past, but it’s unclear if all of those instances can be attributed to climate change, or if “natural variables” can account for some, according to an October 2024 report from the Congressional Research Service.
Researchers, however, have indeed observed an increase in rapidly intensifying storms in global basins, as well as a significant spike in rapid intensification happening just offshore, rather than out in the open ocean.
The NOAA points to our warming planet as a major factor. Rising ocean temperatures (both on the surface and below) as well as humid air — which often accompanies warmer water — are two of the main conditions that encourage cyclone development, the agency says.
Such rapidly intensifying storms will only become “more likely” in the future, according to the Congressional report.
“According to NOAA, scientists have medium to high confidence that tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average under a [2 degrees Celsius] of global surface temperature increase, and that the global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense levels (Category 4 and 5) will also likely increase over the 21st century,” the report states.
“Scientists also project these changes for the Atlantic basin, specifically,” the author added.
An increase in rapidly intensifying cyclones, too, is especially problematic for those in the paths of the forecasted storms. Rapid intensification is hard to predict, meaning residents in the target areas not be fully aware of the intensity of a hurricane — and perhaps not prepared to evacuate — until it’s too late.
Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday, albeit as a weaker Category 3 hurricane, Nexstar's WFLA reported Monday.
Still, officials are urging residents of some parts to prepare and evacuate before it’s too late to do so.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said, the Associated Press reported. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”