A key market attribute is the ability to assess the probability of a future event – and adjusting expectations accordingly. For, expectations create more trouble for your portfolio than anything else. So, let’s try to assess the market environment for the next three months. There are several event risks in this quarter that could cause volatility. These range from the US election, to a possible China recovery (which might lead to an outflow of money from emerging markets), and continuing Middle East tensions. Volatility creates self-doubt and anxiety. These are two very different things, but with the same end result: Selling of good businesses and averaging of wrong stocks. So, for the next few months, let sense – not sentiment – guide you when it comes to small-cap stocks.
