Harris outperforms Biden with Black voters, but Trump gaining: Survey

Support for Vice President Harris among likely Black voters has increased since President Biden stepped down from the race, just as support for former President Trump among the key voting bloc has seen an uptick, a new survey revealed.

The poll, released Saturday from The New York Times and Siena College, found that almost 80 percent of likely Black voters would vote for Harris if the presidential election were held today, and the choices were either her or Trump. Harris garnered 78 percent backing in the poll, compared to Biden's 74 percent prior to withdrawing.

Biden, however, had garnered support from 90 percent of Black voters in 2020.

The 15 percent that said they would choose Trump is a 6-point increase from four years ago. Roughly 7 percent said they didn't know or refused, according to the survey.

Fifty-six percent of likely Black voters also said that they were "almost certain" they would vote, compared to the 31 percent that said they were "very likely" and the 7 percent who said "somewhat likely," the poll found. Just 1 percent said they were "not very likely" to vote and 4 percent said they were "not at all likely."

Harris's entry onto the Democratic ticket has energized young Black voters. A September Washington Post/Ipsos poll of 1,083 Black Americans found that 69 percent are “absolutely certain to vote” in November, an increase from 62 percent in April when Biden sat at the top of the ticket. 

Black voters in key battleground states also seem to support Harris over Trump, with 78 percent of registered Black voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin saying they would choose the Democratic nominee if the election were held today, according to a Howard Initiative on Public Opinion survey from last month.

However, another recent poll from The Times/Siena survey of likely male voters showed the GOP nominee with a sizable lead nationally — 51 percent to 40 percent — over Harris. Democratic strategists have also sounded the alarm that she needs to increase her numbers with Black and Latino men if she wants to defeat Trump, who has increased his numbers with both voting blocs.

Former President Obama appealed to Black male voters on behalf of the Harris campaign during a rally earlier this week in Pennsylvania, though he faced some backlash for his comments.

“We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” Obama said, referencing “reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities.” 

The latest Times/Siena poll was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 589 Black voters, including 548 who identify as Black alone and 41 who identify as Black in combination with another race or ethnicity. The margin of error for the full sample was 5.6 percentage points.