American League Championship Series Preview: the Guardians vs. the Yankees

We meet again, old foe

The Guardians and Yankees will meet in the playoffs for the 28th time in their franchise’s storied histories and for their seventh postseason series together beginning tonight in the Bronx.

Many of you reading this article are likely Guardians fans and preparing yourself for another agonizing struggle to try to top a hated rival. Some of you may be fans of other MLB teams who just want to see the Yankees lose or who just want to see a small market team succeed. Whatever the case, you’re welcome here both to read articles and to comment, if you wish, in the threads below. I hope the following article will help you get to know and appreciate our fun and lovable Guardians team a little bit better.

The Guardians went 92-69 with a +87 run differential, winning the American League Central division and securing the number two seed in the American League and a first-round bye. They then won a close, hard-fought series against the Tigers in five games in the ALDS. They were 16th in MLB at 100 wRC+, 17th in baserunning runs above average at -1, fourth in defensive fWAR at 12.7, 24th in MLB in starter FIP at 4.51, and first in reliever FIP at 3.30.

The Yankees went 94-68 with a +147 run differential, winning the American League East and securing homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They then dispatched the Kansas City Royals in four games in the ALDS. They were second in MLB at 117 wRC+, worst in MLB in baserunning runs above average at -16.9, third in defensive fWAR at 15.9, 18th in starter FIP at 4.13, and 19th in reliever FIP at 3.96.

Let’s take a look at the respective rosters, just announced:

Guardians Position Players:

Bo Naylor, LHH C - 74 wRC+, 31.4/7.5 K/BB%

Austin Hedges, RHH C - 20 wRC+, 34.2/4.1 K/BB%

Josh Naylor, LHH 1B - 118 wRC+, 16.6/9.2 K/BB%

Kyle Manzardo, LHH DH/1B - 98 wRC+, 26.3/5.8 K/BB% (104 wRC+ vs. RHP overall but 147 wRC+ vs. RHP since returning to the big leagues on September 1st)

David Fry, RHH DH/1B - 129 wRC+, 21.4/10.7 K/BB% (179 wRC+ vs LHP)

Andres Gimenez, LHH 2B - 83 wRC+, 15.3/4.1 K/BB%

Jose Ramirez, SH 3B - 141 wRC+, 12/7.9 K/BB%

Brayan Rocchio, SH SS - 79 wRC+, 20.4/10 K/BB%

Daniel Schneemann, LHH UIF - 93 wRC+, 31.7/11.3 K/BB%

Steven Kwan, LHH LF - 131 wRC+, 9.4/9.8 K/BB%

Lane Thomas, RHH CF - 99 wRC+, 25.9/8.3 K/BB% (119 wRC+ vs LHP)

Will Brennan, LHH RF - 98 wRC+, 13.6/5.4 K/BB% (109 wRC+ vs. RHP)

Jhonkensy Noel, RHH RF - 118 wRC+, 31.8/6.6 K/BB% (165 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Likely Lineup vs. RHP

1. Kwan LF

2. Manzardo DH

3. Jose 3B

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. Brennan RF

6. Thomas CF

7. Gimenez 2B

8. Bo Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Likely Lineup vs. LHP

1. Kwan LF

2. Fry DH

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Thomas CF

5. Josh Naylor 1B

6. Noel RF

7. Gimenez 2B

8. Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Pitchers for the Guardians:

Game One Starter: Alex Cobb, RHP - 3.29 FIP, 3.87 SIERA, 16.1/4.8 K/BB%

Game Two Starter: Tanner Bibee, RHP - 3.56 FIP, 3.58 SIERA, 26.3/6.2 K/BB%

Probable Game Three Starter: Matthew Boyd, LHP - 3.29 FIP, 3.65 SIERA, 27.7/7.8 K/BB%

Probable Game Four Starter: Joey Cantillo, LHP - 4.07 FIP, 3.70 SIERA, 27/9.2 K/BB%

Gavin Williams, RHP - 3.67 FIP, 4.19 SIERA, 23.8/9.6 K/BB%

Pedro Avila, RHP - 3.76 FIP, 3.85 SIERA, 23/9.4 K/BB%

Eli Morgan, RHP - 3.64 FIP, 4.08 SIERA, 20.4/6.6 K/BB%

Andrew Walters, RHP - 3.52 FIP, 5.81 SIERA, 18.8/15.6 K/BB%

Erik Sabrowski, LHP - 1.11 FIP, 2.15 SIERA, 40.4/8.5 K/BB%

Tim Herrin, LHP - 2.86 FIP, 3.45 SIERA, 26.5/9.7 K/BB%

Hunter Gaddis, RHP - 3.38 SIERA, 23.7/5 K/BB%

Cade Smith, RHP - 1.40 FIP, 2.16 SIERA, 35.6/5,9 K/BB%

Emmanuel Clase, RHP - 2.22 FIP, 2.64 SIERA, 24.4/3.7 K/BB%

Position Players for the Yankees:

Jose Trevino, C RHH - 83 wRC+, 17.5/8.3 K/BB%

Austin Wells, C LHH - 105 wRC+, 21/11.4 K/BB%

Jon Berti, Utility IF RHH - 95 wRC+, 18.9/8.1 K/BB%

Anthony Rizzo, 1B LHH - 84 wRC+, 17.2/7.3 K/BB%

Gleyber Torres, 2B RHH - 104 wRC+, 20.5/9.8 K/BB% (132 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Jazz Chisholm, 3B/Utility LHH - 132 wRC+, 23.6/7.3 K/BB% (114 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Anthony Volpe, SS RHH - 86 wRC+, 22.6/6.1 K/BB%

Jasson Dominguez, OF SH - 84 wRC+, 17.3/7.2 K/BB%

Trent Grisham, OF LHH - 91 wRC+, 27.3/10.5 K/BB%

Aaron Judge, CF RHH - 218 wRC+, 24.3/18.9 K/BB%

Juan Soto, RF LHH - 180 wRC+, 18.1/16.7 K/BB%

Alex Verdugo, LF LHH - 83 wRC+, 15/7.9 K/BB%

Giancarlo Stanton, DH RHH - 116 wRC+, 31.2/8.3 K/BB%

Oswaldo Cabrera, Utility IF/OF SH - 88 wRC+, 19.3/6.4 K/BB%

Likely Lineup vs RHP:

1. Torres, 2B

2. Soto, RF

3. Judge, CF

4. Wells, C

5. Stanton, DH

6. Chisholm, 3B

7. Rizzo, 1B

8. Volpe, SS

9. Verdguo, LF

Likely Lineup vs. LHP:

1. Torres, 2B

2. Soto, RF

3. Judge, CF

4. Wells, C

5. Stanton, DH

6. Chisholm, 3B

7. Volpe, SS

8. Verdugo, LF

9. Berti, 1B

Pitchers for the Yankees:

Game One Starter: Carlos Rodon, LHP - 4.39 FIP, 3.78 SIERA

Game Two Starter: Gerrit Cole, RHP - 3.69 FIP, 3.79 SIERA

Game Three Starter: Clarke Schmidt, RHP - 3.58 FIP, 3.77 SIERA

Likely Game Four Starter: Luis Gil, RHP - 4.14 FIP, 4.22 SIERA

Jake Cousins, RHP - 4.06 FIP, 3.16 SIERA (3.00 FIP vs. LHH)

Ian Hamilton, RHP - 3.03 FIP, 3.48 SIERA (2.32 FIP vs. RHH)

Tim Hill, LHP - 3.62 FIP, 3.33 SIERA (2.71 FIP vs. LHH)

Clay Holmes, RHP - 3.02 FIP, 2.87 SIERA (2.40 FIP vs. RHH)

Tommy Kahnle, RHP - 4.01 FIP, 3.46 SIERA

Tim Mayza, LHP - 3.94 FIP, 3.71 SIERA (2.13 FIP vs. LHH)

Marcus Stroman, RHP - 4.62 FIP, 4.74 SIERA

Luke Weaver, RHP - 3.33 FIP, 2.87 SIERA (2.85 FIP vs. LHH)

Some notes:

Check out my previous article about three keys for the Guardians to beat the Yankees for some initial insights. To summarize, the Guardians will need to get more length from their starters and to continue to use the full depth of their pen, the Guardians’ left-handed hitters need to step up, and they need to minimize the damage from Soto and Judge. If, as happened in the NYY-KC series, hitters other than Soto and Judge end up doing the majority of the work to beat your team, you tip you cap and move on with your offseason. Just do whatever you can to minimize the impact of those two monsters.

Interestingly enough, the Yankees may feel similarly about controlling Ramirez and Kwan for Cleveland. The other hitters not playing third base or left-field for the Guardians in 2024 had only a 90 wRC+. The hitters not playing center-field or right-field for the Yankees in 2024 had only a 95 wRC+. These teams are mostly carred by Ramirez and Kwan and Soto and Judge, respectively. Whichever arms are better able to control the opposing side’s dynamic duo will likely find their way to the World Series.

Something to watch would be the Guardians struggles with the breaking ball as the team is -19.8 runs below average against sliders/sweepers and -1.8 runs below average against curveballs. Cleveland also struggles with fastballs with good downward vertical movement, as they are -19.2 runs against sinkers and -1.8 runs against splitters. Finally, Cleveland has been the worst team in MLB against cutters at -17.8 runs below average. Tim Hill’s sinker, and Luis Gil, Jake Cousins, Clay Holmes, Clarke Schmidt and Gerrit Cole’s sliders should be effective weapons in this series.

Meanwhile, the only Yankees are above average against every typical pitch. They are only 0.1 runs above average against the curveball, 1.1 runs above average against the changeup, and 1.9 runs above average against the cutter. This makes changeups from Eli Morgan, Pedro Avila, and Hunter Gaddis, curves from Tim Herrin and Avila, and Emmanuel Clase cutters good offerings for the Guardians to give the Yankees.

It’s interesting that the Yankees don’t really have any proven lefty mashers on their bench, which is why I think it makes sense to let Joey Cantillo get a start in game four at home (perhaps with an Avila or Morgan opener). I also would not hesitate to release Sabrowski and Herrin on the Yankee lineup at regular intervals, while realizing that Herrin is showing some significant signs of fatigue. I think we are done seeing Matthew Boyd pulled after striking out five in two innings, and, if he’s getting outs, he should be set to try to give the Guardians five-six competitive innings. A big key for the Guardians will be Alex Cobb getting enough groundballs tonight to get Cleveland through at least five, setting up a taxed bullpen for success tonight and for the quick turnaround in game two the following night.

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs offered an excellent preview of this series, and he rightly points out that one of the few advantages the Guardians have is a deeper bullpen and deeper bench than the Yankees. For this reason, it’s imperative for the Cleveland starter to keep these games close and give the Guardians’ depth a chance to tip the scales in their favor in a series where the Yankees are clear favorites. For me, I want to see, most of all, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, David Fry, and Lane Thomas display some patience at the plate and take walks. The Yankees will try to get Guardians hitters to chase their pitches, hoping for strikeouts and weak contact. I’m confident Kwan will make teams get the ball in the zone, but these other big horses need to set the example in patience to take their walks. Obviously, capitalizing on pitches in the zone early in counts will continue to be important, but I don’t believe the Guardians will win this series unless they increase their walk count from the nine total bases-on-balls they got in five games against the Tigers (five of those walks coming in game one).

I can say that this season has been a delight for me as a Guardians fan. I hope you’ll enjoy getting to see some of the fun personalities and exceptional display of friendship on this amazing team during the next week. But, man, I really, really want to beat the Yankees and I really, really, REALLY want to win a World Series. So, I’m going to enjoy this ALCS and root like heck for my guys to find a way to pull off the upset and stun the world. Let’s go, Guardians!