1st-and-10: House of cards? Bears have an ace in the hole

When the Bears were flying high in 2012 under Lovie Smith — 7-1 after nine weeks, with an NFL-best +116 points differential — the critics said it wouldn’t last.

The Bears and Jay Cutler were the beneficiaries of a fortunate schedule and good timing. They faced the Colts and Andrew Luck — a Pro Bowl quarterback as a rookie — in Luck’s NFL debut and won 41-21. Their other six victories came against teams with a composite 16-33 record.

With their next six games against teams with winning records — a combined 34-18 — the skeptics said the Bears were due for a major correction.

And they were right.

Even with Cutler and upgraded weapons — with Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffery joining Matt Forte and Earl Bennett — and a defense that finished third in points allowed (17.3 per game), the Bears hit the wall. They lost five of those six games to fall to 8-6. And despite winning the final two games, they failed to make the playoffs, and Smith was fired after going 10-6.

A cautionary tale for Matt Eberflus’ 2024 team that is 4-2 but hasn’t beaten a winning team yet? The scenario looks awfully familiar. The Bears are third in the NFL in scoring differential (plus-47), but their four victories have come against teams with a composite 4-18 (.182) record. The offensive revival behind rookie quarterback Caleb Williams that has sparked a three-game winning streak has come against defenses that currently rank 29th, 32nd and 31st in points allowed.

And the schedule is about to get significantly more difficult. The Bears play the Commanders (4-2) following their bye week. After the Cardinals (2-4) and Patriots (1-5), their final eight games are against opponents with a combined 32-22 record, including six division games against the Vikings (5-0), Lions (4-1) and Packers (4-2).

You can’t blame the critics for predicting the Bears’ demise. The Bears have a history, after all. That cloudy forecast, though, is based on the Bears’ current formative state. But with Williams getting comfortable, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron learning what he has and newcomers Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift better in Week 6 than they were in Week 1, the Bears have something the 2012 team — and more recent promising teams with Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields — didn’t have: room for growth.

The Jaguars have a bad defense, but they weren’t the Keystone Cops out there Sunday. Williams made pin-point throws — five to Allen among them — that should be just as effective against better defenses.

And Cole Kmet wasn’t wide open on his 31-yard touchdown because Matt Patricia was playing into his hands, but because Waldron’s inventive play design made it happen.

Even a play that faltered — Williams’ interception on a third-and-one deep ball — was the kind of big-boy, Andy Reid-level play-call that could pay dividends down the road.

Pleading for patience doesn’t fly around here, because being patient hasn’t paid dividends since Jim McMahon was a rookie in 1982. But based on the eye test, it’s a lot easier to accept the “17-game process” approach this time, because the Bears have a quarterback who might not be able to lift a team on his shoulders, but still makes everyone better, or as good as they should be. That always gives you a chance.

2. With Williams, the Bears are doing things they haven’t done for awhile, but this might be the one that says the most about where the Bears are and where they have been: The 35-16 victory over the Jaguars marked the first time they have scored five or more offensive touchdowns in back-to-back games since 1956.

That’s the last time the Bears led the NFL in scoring. Harlon Hill caught touchdowns of 37 and 68 yards from Ed Brown, Rick Casares rushed for two touchdowns and George Blanda did Kmet one better — throwing a touchdown pass, then kicking the PAT three times himself in a 58-27 rout of the Colts and Johnny Unitas.

The next week, Casares rushed for four touchdowns and Harland Carl rushed for one in a 38-21 victory over the 49ers. The Bears finished 9-2-1 to win the West Division, and lost to the Giants 47-7 in the NFL Championship Game.

3. The Bears’ offensive line has improved since struggling in the first three weeks of the season, and Williams has lent a helping hand. He was sacked three times against the Jaguars, but for five yards. Against the Panthers, he was sacked once for eight yards. That’s a big improvement from Week 1, when Williams’ first two sacks as an NFL quarterback lost 19 and 10 yards.

Williams’ sack yardage, in fact, has declined in four consecutive games since he was sacked seven times for 40 yards against the Texans — from 31 yards to 24 to eight to five.

4. With four touchdown passes and 282 yards from scrimmage (226 passing, 56 rushing), Williams is a candidate for NFC offensive player of the week. It would give the Bears three winners — on offense, defense (Tyrique Stevenson) and special teams (Tory Taylor) — in the first six weeks of the season.

The last time the Bears had all three phases represented in the same season was in 2018, when Trubisky, safety Eddie Jackson and place-kicker Cody Parkey won the award in successive weeks.

5. As the games begin to pile up, you can’t underestimate the importance of winning the NFL’s war of attrition. Two future opponents lost key players to season-ending injuries Sunday — Commanders defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (torn pectoral muscle) and Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (broken fibula/tibia).

Hutchinson, who had 7.5 sacks, was the leading candidate for NFL Player or the Year Award at the time of his injury.

The Bears — knock on wood — have avoided serious injuries so far, with players returning to the game after leaving with an injury. Left guard Teven Jenkins, right tackle Darnell Wright, defensive tackle Andrew Billings and left tackle Braxton Jones are among those who have played through injuries. Keenan Allen missed two games with a heel injury and had his best game with the Bears on Sunday.

6. Fun Fact: Williams has had three consecutive games with a 100-plus passer rating (124.4 against the Jaguars, 126.2 against the Panthers, 106.6 against the Rams), with averages of 122.8, 229 yards per game and 8.5 yards per attempt.

The last Bears quarterback to have a 100-plus passer rating in three consecutive victories was Jay Cutler in 2009 — his second, third and fourth games with the Bears.

7. For What It’s Worth. Dept.: Eberflus isn’t quite Andy Reid after the bye, but the Bears have played well following the week off in his two seasons.

In 2022, they lost to the Super Bowl-bound Eagles 25-20 at Soldier Field. Last year, they beat the Lions 28-13 at Soldier Field.

8. Quick Hits: The Bears’ defense has held 12 consecutive opponents to 21 points or fewer — the longest active streak in the NFL. All 12 opponents have been held below their season average. . . . The Jaguars came in with a league-high five plays of 50 or more yards. Their longest play Sunday was 24 yards. . . . The Commanders’ Tress Way (three) punted more times than Tory Taylor (two) for the first time this season. . . . With all due respect to Kmet, the best position player to long snap for the Bears is Dick Butkus, who returned an interception 38 yards and centered on a punt against the Cardinals as a rookie in 1965.

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Lions running back David Montgomery had 12 carries for 80 yards and scored two touchdowns (16, 1) to spark a 47-9 rout of the Cowboys.

Montgomery has 75 carries for 351 yards (4.7 average) and six touchdowns this season. He has scored at least one touchdown in all five games.

10. Bear-ometer — 9-8: at Commanders (L); at Cardinals (W); vs. Patriots (W); vs. Packers (L); vs. Vikings (W); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (W); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).