The “Gender Gap” Story So Far is Harris’s Resilience with Men
“Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to win support from men. Former President Donald Trump has the same problem with women.” So reported The Wall Street Journal this week.
Similarly, The New York Times told us that Harris is “running up the numbers with women” while Trump “has built a solid lead with men.” And NPR says “we may see the widest gender gap in history in any presidential election in this election” because Trump is “blowing out the margins with men.”
But the Washington Monthly’s Gender Gap Tracker has a different story to tell. The data show that while the gender gap is wide, it’s not the widest ever.
And that’s because Harris is showing resilience with men despite Trump’s blitzkrieg of misogynistic attacks, male-centric media strategy, and choice of James Brown’s It’s A Man’s Man’s Man’s World on his rally playlist.
I’ll dig into the Week 7 Gender Gap Tracker numbers. But first, here’s what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
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To refresh: the Gender Gap Tracker each week follows both the Gender Gap—the distance between the margin among women and the margin among men—and the Gender Gap Tilt—the difference between the female lead and the male lead. Only polls with gender breakdowns are included in the Tracker’s averages.
Here are the Gender Gap and Gender Gap Tilt numbers for the last three presidential elections, according to post-election analysis conducted by the political data firm Catalist:
2020
GENDER GAP: 19
GENDER GAP TILT: Joe Biden +7
WOMEN
Joe Biden: 56
Donald Trump: 43
Margin: Biden +13
MEN
Donald Trump: 52
Joe Biden: 46
Margin: Trump +6
2016
GENDER GAP: 24
GENDER GAP TILT: Hillary Clinton +2
WOMEN
Hillary Clinton: 54
Donald Trump: 41
Margin: Clinton +13
MEN
Donald Trump: 52
Hillary Clinton: 41
Margin: Trump +11
2012
GENDER GAP: 15
GENDER GAP TILT: Barack Obama +7
WOMEN
Barack Obama: 55
Mitt Romney: 44
Margin: Obama +11
MEN
Mitt Romney: 51
Barack Obama: 47
Margin: Romney +4
Trump’s entrance to the presidential arena in 2016 immediately widened the gender gap. In fact, the 24-point gap in 2016 is the largest recorded in exit polls since at least 1972. (The 2016 gap was the same in exit polling as in the Catalist analysis.)
The only similarly sized gender gap, as I previously noted in August, was the 22-point divide in 2000, when men sided with George W. Bush by 11 points, and women did the same with Al Gore.
But almost every presidential election since 1980 has had a double-digit gender gap. And in almost every one since 1996, Democrats have won the female vote, and Republicans have won the male vote.
With that history in mind, how is Harris faring?
Below are the Week 7 Gender Gap Tracker numbers, with comparisons to Week 6. Last week’s numbers in the October 10 newsletter have been revised as some polls—sampled during the Week 6 period—were released after publication. Numbers do not always add up perfectly because of the effects of rounding.
WASHINGTON MONTHLY GENDER GAP TRACKER
OCTOBER 17 EDITION
GENDER GAP: 20.1 (change from last week: down 0.4)
GENDER GAP TILT: Harris +3.4 (0.3 shift toward Harris)
OVERALL AVERAGE
Harris: 49.8
Trump: 47.6
Margin: Harris +2.1 (0.1-point shift toward Harris)
FEMALE AVERAGE
Harris: 54.6
Trump: 42.9
Margin: Harris +11.8 (no change)
MALE AVERAGE
Trump: 53.1
Harris: 44.8
Margin: Trump +8.4 (0.3-point shift toward Harris)
To look at this data without historical context could lead one to conclude that Harris is “struggling” with men while Trump is “running up the score” with them.
Yet Harris’s gender averages are almost identical to final numbers of Biden and Obama ’12, who won, and better than those of Clinton, who lost.
Using rounded figures, Harris’s male share is one point behind Biden and two behind Obama, but four points higher than Clinton ’16.
Among women, Harris is beating Clinton by one, matching Obama ’12, and one point shy of Biden.
We are now in our third presidential election in a row with Trump on the ballot, and the second election in which Trump faces a woman. What the data currently tells is among male voters, Harris is performing far closer to the man who defeated Trump than the woman who didn’t.
These are just poll numbers, so it’s too early to draw firm conclusions.
But media narratives based on a presumption that Harris is atypically “struggling” with men are approaching the gender gap story from a blinkered perspective.
The more interesting story to explore is: What can explain why Harris is performing better with men than the last woman to be nominated for president?
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Best,
Bill Scher, Washington Monthly politics editor
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