Predictions: Who wins Murtazaliev vs Tszyu?

Murtazaliev vs Tszyu headlines Saturday on Prime Video in a PBC main event.

We’re back! It’s not the biggest fight in the world headlining this weekend, but it is a potentially really good one, as Bakhram Murtazaliev defends the IBF super welterweight title against Tim Tszyu on Saturday in Florida, live on Prime Video.

Scott Christ

Think this might be a great fight in the ring. I’m going to go with Tszyu, it’s a good matchup and says a ton about who he is that he’s not taking some junk tune-up after his first loss, and in fact he meant to taken an arguably even more dangerous matchup with Vergil Ortiz, he just couldn’t get the gruesome cut he suffered against Fundora healed up by August.

Murtazaliev is a good fighter, though, or at least I think he is — it’s a lot of eye test because the competition has been so-so for him, but he was ready and willing to fight Jermell Charlo for a while there, too. And I think Murtazaliev is dangerous here, but Tszyu has proven himself legit. Tszyu has also proven himself flawed and a proper warrior, which means (A) he’s fun to watch and (B) he can lose fights like this if a couple things go wrong on him. Going with the Aussie in a hard-fought battle, though. Tszyu UD-12

Wil Esco

In my humble opinion, Tim Tszyu was on his way to a win over Sebastian Fundora until he was split open from an accidental foul. That one moment immediately changed the tenor of the fight and it was clear that Tszyu struggled thereafter with a constant stream of blood flowing into his eyes. Tszyu easily could’ve had that fight stopped to spare an official loss, but his warrior mentality cost him in that regard. This isn’t to discredit Fundora in any way, but that’s just the way I saw it.

Tszyu now wants to take the opportunity to rebound from his loss and prove to the world that he’s much more than a come-forward pressure fighter, even though I do think that’s his natural strength. I think a motivated Tszyu gets back into the win column here but I also think he’ll have to go the distance in order to do so. Tszyu UD-12

John Hansen

Gotta go with Tszyu here. Murtazaliev may pass the eye test, but Tszyu has shown much more against sturdier opposition. Even in defeat, Tszyu proved something just by taking a Fundora fight on less than two weeks notice, and soldiering on through 10 rounds of compromised vision and a bloody mask of a face. A Tszyu that can see is a Tszyu that can destroy, and he’ll have extra motivation in his first fight since losing a title. I like him for the early finish. Tszyu TKO-8

Patrick Stumberg

This has all the hallmarks of your classic “will lose but make him work for it” matchup. Murtazaliev’s too gritty to roll over without putting up a fight, but I really don’t see anything in his arsenal that could give Tszyu pause. Toughness, power, aggression, and solid fundamentals aren’t enough against an opponent who can match or exceed you in those areas, especially when you’re open to the sorts of killer right hands that Tszyu brings to the table.

Though Murtazaliev does have a fair bit of height on Tszyu, he wasn’t particularly inclined to exploit it against the even shorter Jack Culcay. You could chalk that up to ring rust and training through Ramadan, of course, but seeing that performance and imagining a peak form that can out-slug Tszyu feels like wishful thinking. Tszyu pulls away down the stretch to force a mercy stoppage. Tszyu TKO-10

Odds

Tszyu (24-1, 17 KO) is a heavy favorite to bounce back from his loss to Fundora in March, with FanDuel listing the Aussie at -700 to win, and Murtazaliev (22-0, 16 KO) a +470 underdog. A stoppage is favored, too, with Tszyu by KO/TKO at -135, and +195 to win by decision. Murtazaliev by decision is seen as the better bet if you’re going for him and a specific method of victory, as the decision is +850 and a KO/TKO is +1100.