ACC Preseason Polls Almost Always Have One Or Two Schools At The Top

Which ones could it be?

Now that we’re encouraged to bet on all sorts of sports results, we’re sure some fans will wager on which ACC team rises to win the ACC Tournament and with it the league’s automatic NCAA bid.

Best not risk funds by going with the collective judgment of the ACC media, however. Not for the likely choice as the ACC’s regular-season or league tournament titleist, anyway.

This season starts with Duke picked to finish first, a good bet. But not that good, not historically. Occasional questions as to why the Blue Devils didn’t fare better during regular-season play didn’t sit well with Mike Krzyzewski, although clearly that wasn’t a high priority.

Counting 2024-25, in this century Duke was picked to top the ACC 13 times, more than any other program. But across that span the Devils enjoyed only five first-place finishes during the regular season. Duke hasn’t emerged in first place and won the ACC Tournament since 2010 when Jon Scheyer was the point guard on the program’s last national championship squad.

When forecasted to be the ACC’s best, Duke did close the deal when it came to the ACC Tournament, winning nine times in 24 tries since 2001.

Now, whether it’s been perspicacity, conditioning or groupthink, the media picked a team other than Duke or North Carolina only five times in the past quarter-century.

Miami was selected to lead the ACC regular-season parade in 2023, and succeeded. Jim Larranaga’s squad then had the wherewithal to advance to the first Final Four in school history, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong and wing Jordan Miller.

Virginia was tabbed to top the league in 2021. Tony Bennett’s charges prospered as usual during the regular season, finishing first with big man Jay Huff their only All-ACC selection. Then they reached the semis of the ACC Tournament and flamed out as usual in their NCAA opener against Ohio. (The Cavs’ 2019 national championship notwithstanding.)

Florida State was as powerful in 2020 as any team Leonard Hamilton has fielded. After being picked to finish first, FSU did just that. It also won a game in the ACC Tournament, only to have Covid shut down postseason play. The Noles were declared the ACC’s titleist, anyway.

Picked first in 2013, NC State ended up fourth during the regular season in Mark Gottfried’s second year as head coach. The Wolfpack proceeded to lose in the ACC Tournament semis and got eliminated by Temple in its NCAA opener.

And Wake Forest, the preseason favorite with Chris Paul, the eventual 2005 ACC Rookie of the Year, didn’t win more than once in either ACC or NCAA tournament play.

Now three more teams have joined the conference scrum. While Cal, SMU and Stanford all are possibilities to win the ACC Tournament, don’t count on it.

In this century newcomers have rarely prospered within the league, Boston College in 2006 being a notable exception. That year Al Skinner’s group featuring Craig Smith and Jared Dudley finished third during the regular season, barely lost to Duke in the ACC Tournament title game, and reached the Sweet 16.

Mostly, though, first-year ACC programs haven’t been expected to do much, and didn’t. They weren’t the only ones. Since 2001 eight of 15 teams failed to command a majority media opinion they’d lead the ACC regular-season race.

Looked at another way, no school that joined the ACC this century has impressed sufficiently to merit front-running status in preseason.