Marin median house price approaches $1.8M

The median price of a house in Marin edged up to $1.76 million in September, a year-over-year increase of nearly 7%, according to new data from the county assessor’s office.

The September figure also represented a steep increase from August, when the median price was $1.5 million. The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

Marin’s median price passed the $2 million mark in April and May of 2022, but has not reached it since then, according to county data.

A notable sale in Marin last month was 9 Upper Ames Ave. in Ross, a five-bedroom home built in 2004. It sold for $23.5 million.

The listing agent, Tracy McLaughlin, said properties that command that kind of money need to be newer construction with flat, walkable lots. Houses with perceived downsides such as uneven lots, road noise and structural problems are being discounted down to 2019 or early 2020 prices, said McLaughlin, whose office is in Larkspur.

“COVID bumped everything way up and we’re not back yet,” she said. “It’s lost that appreciation, that bubble appreciation. I think that’s applicable across the board.”

Sales volume in Marin remained relatively flat in September. The county recorded 153 house sales last month compared to 147 the prior September, a 4% increase.

However, new active listings in Marin County rose 36% over the one-year period, according to the California Association of Realtors. Only Mariposa, Sutter and Ventura counties were higher.

In the overall nine-county Bay Area, the median house price declined 2.6% from September 2023 to last month, the association reported. Sales volume rose 5.1% over the same period.

The median price of a single-family home last month was $1.63 million in San Francisco, a 2.8% year-over-year increase, and $830,000 in Sonoma County, a 2.1% decline, the association said.

Other median prices in September included $2.1 million in San Mateo County; $1.93 million in Santa Clara County; $1.27 million in Alameda County; $882,500 in Napa County; $863,750 in Contra Costa County; and $611,000 in Solano County.

Statewide, the median house price was $868,150 last month, up 2.9% from the prior September, the Realtors’ association said. Sales volume rose 5.1% year over year, but declined 3.4% between August and September.

“Economic uncertainty and hopes for lower interest rates may have caused many buyers to hold off on a home purchase,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. “As a result, home sales declined for the second consecutive month, reaching their lowest level this year. However, the recent rebound in bond yields is a reminder that rates will continue to fluctuate, and waiting may not be the best strategy when it comes to homebuying.”

The U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.54% as of Thursday, up from 6.44% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage company. A year ago, the average was 7.79%.

Median house prices in specific parts of Marin last month included $6.33 million on two sales in Belvedere; $4.74 million on three sales in Ross; $3.58 million on 10 sales in Mill Valley; $3.39 million on six sales in Tiburon; and $2.33 million on six sales in Larkspur.

Other median prices included $1.85 million on 13 sales in Corte Madera; $1.8 million on five sales in Sausalito; $1.75 million on three sales in Fairfax; $1.75 million on 21 sales in San Rafael; $1.59 million on 43 sales in unincorporated areas of the county; $1.49 million on nine sales in San Anselmo; and $1.16 million on 32 sales in Novato.

In the Marin condominium and townhome market, the median price last month was $795,000 on 40 sales, according to the assessor’s office. In September 2023, it was $790,000 on 45 sales.

September was the first month of home sales data to reflect new rules on commission-setting from the National Association of Realtors that rolled out in August. Previously, sellers typically paid commission to both their agent and the buyers’ agent, and listed that commission in a multiple listing service, databases available to real estate agents.

Now, though, an MLS listing can’t note whether a seller is offering compensation to a buyer’s agent. If a seller declines, a buyer is on the hook for the cost — a provision that some agents worried would scare off prospective buyers.

Sellers remain focused on their “bottom line,” said Andrew Oldham, a real estate agent in Los Gatos. Buyers who ask the seller to compensate their agent at the traditional 2.5% might have to submit a higher offer than buyers who might pay their agent themself, or use a flat-fee service.

“It’s provided transparency to buyers and sellers about how agents are paid, and made sellers focus on their net,” Oldham said.

Even though listings are up slightly from last year, agents say inventory remains at historically low levels. Those who bought during the pandemic are still reluctant to sell and give up their lower interest rates because just a few percentage points difference can translate to hundreds of dollars on a monthly mortgage.

As the election approaches and Thanksgiving after that, inventory is only expected to decline further, said Jordan Mott, a real estate agent in San Jose. The fact that mortgage rates already began climbing again in the first few weeks of October after reaching their low Sept. 26 won’t help.

“With the holidays coming up soon, you don’t tend to see a lot of people bringing new inventory to the market,” he said. “I would expect that we’ll see a relatively mild or stable end to 2024 but I expect when we hit the beginning of 2025 that we’ll probably see an uptick of prices and buyer activity in the market.”

Bay Area News Group contributed to this report.

Marin real estate data
The median prices for detached homes in the county over the past year.
Sept. 2024: $1.76 million
Aug. 2024: $1.5 million
July 2024: $1.6 million
June 2024: $1.76 million
May 2024: $1.84 million
April 2024: $1.69 million
March 2024: $1.96 million
Feb. 2024: $1.64 million
Jan. 2024: $1.5 million
Dec. 2023: $1.56 million
Nov. 2023: $1.74 million
Oct. 2023: $1.75 million
Sept. 2023: $1.65 million
Source: Marin County assessor’s office