Who Will the Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To?

The Mets will have until five days after the World Series ends to decide whether to give their free agents qualifying offers, a one-year offer that will be a record-setting $21.05 million for the 2025 season. (The salary is calculated by averaging the top 125 MLB salaries.)

If a player accepts, he stays. If he rejects, the Mets will receive a draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. A team that signs a player who has rejected a QO suffers draft pick penalties. As a result, this factors into a club’s decision on whether a player is worth the offer or if he might accept it. The QO can sometimes affect a player’s free agency experience.

Since the qualifying offer system was implemented in 2012, only 13 of 131 have accepted the offer. Marcus Stroman was the last Met to take the qualifying offer for the 2021 season after opting out of the shortened 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Neil Walker is the only other Met to accept the offer from the team, accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer for the 2017 season.

Below are a few candidates to whom the Mets will likely extend a qualifying offer.

Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso, the four-time All-Star first baseman will test the free agent market for the first time in his career. The Mets will certainlyextend the qualifying offer to Alonso, who will then reject the offer: all formalities. Alonso’s endgame is to see where he can land the most lucrative contract. While the Mets have made it clear they would love to have the Polar Bear return to Queens (and the slugger has noted the same), a long-term deal is the only way it’ll get done.

The real question with Alonso is where he lands. A number of teams enter the offseason in need of a power-hitting first baseman and will surely take a run at him. Keep an eye on the Cubs, Astros, Giants and even the Yankees, especially if Juan Soto goes, um, elsewhere.

Sean Manaea

32-year-old Sean Manaea is expected to reject his $13.5 million player option, putting the ball in the Mets’ court on whether to extend the QO.

Manaea finished the 2024 campaign with a 12-6 record, 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He threw a career-high 181.2 innings and became the defacto ace of the pitching staff when Kodai Senga went down with an injury. The southpaw emerged in the dog days of summer, tweaking his arm slot and delivery with results deserving of a QO offer.

While Manaea will all but likely decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal, both sides haven’t ruled out a return to Flushing. With a rotation that looks thin heading into the offseason behind Kodai Senga and David Peterson, the Mets need all the quality arms they can get.

Luis Severino

This might be the toughest QO call in MLB. Luis Severino went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 2024. He had 161 strikeouts in 182 innings, both career-bests since 2018. When Stearns signed Severino, the message was clear: low-risk, high reward, and that’s just what the Mets got. Severino had a beautiful bounce-back year in Queens after posting a 6.65 ERA with the Yankees in 2023.

However, the Mets must ponder whether he can repeat that and is a mid-rotation starter worth $21.05 million. The Mets will likely lose one or two of Manaea and Jose Quintana in free agency. As noted, New York will need starters, and the free agent pool for pitchers this winter is thin. The competition for the top arms of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried will be fierce. While Steve Cohen is known to show no mercy, the Mets’ full offseason spending plans aren’t known.

Under different circumstances, I’d resist a QO to a 30-year-old whose ERA was close to 4.00. However, if I were the Mets, I would make the offer with the hope of Severino accepting. Out of Alonso, Manaea and Severino, Sevy would likely be the only one to accept the QO.

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