What to expect in Montana on Election Day
This story is part of a series of state-by-state previews of the 2024 election.
When Montana voters cast ballots in the Nov. 5 general election, they’ll decide what may just be the nation’s marquee U.S. Senate race, and with it, perhaps which party will control the closely divided chamber in the next Congress. They’ll also vote on a high-profile ballot question on abortion, as well as less competitive races for president and governor.
Democrats control the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority. With Republicans all but certain to pick up retiring once-Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, a GOP win in Montana would make it difficult for Democrats to keep their majority regardless of who wins the presidency.
Democratic incumbent Jon Tester faces a tough reelection bid for a fourth term against Republican Tim Sheehy. As one of only two Senate Democrats running for reelection in a state Donald Trump won easily in 2020, Tester is a perennial target for Republicans. In his past three races, he won with between 49% and 50% of the vote.
Tester has spent $71 million on the race as of the start of October, compared to about $11 million for Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who has loaned his campaign $2.5 million. Outside groups have poured additional millions into the race.
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Montana is also one of 10 states that will put a ballot question on abortion before voters in November. Officially known as “Constitutional Initiative No. 128,” the measure would enshrine a right to abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution.
At the top of the ballot, the presidential race is far less competitive. The last Democrat to carry Montana in a presidential election was Bill Clinton in 1992, although Barack Obama came close in 2008. Trump won Montana with 57% of the vote in 2016 and 2020, and the Democratic ticket has not set foot in the state this year. Tester skipped the Democratic National Convention in August and has declined to endorse Harris, although Sheehy has tried to link the senator to his party's presidential nominee.
In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte faces Democrat Ryan Busse.