Major party vote share
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There has been some discussion that NZ may follow other countries with the dominant major parties fading over time, to be replaced by more extreme ones. I thought it would be useful to look at the combined vote share for National and Labour under MMP.
- 1996: 62%
- 1999: 69%
- 2002: 62%
- 2005: 80%
- 2008: 79%
- 2011: 75%
- 2014: 72%
- 2017: 81%
- 2020: 76%
- 2023: 65%
I don’t see a trend there. The 2023 result was greater than the first three MMP elections. It is quite possible support for the two major parties will never get back to high 70s, but that is not to say it will drop further.
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