Nate Silver’s 24 reasons Trump could win

Nate Silver has written an interesting post giving 24 reasons why Trump could (not will) win. He is making the case it is not Kamala’s to lose, but hers to win, as so many factors favour Trump. His 24 are:

1. Electoral College bias favours Republicans
2. Inflation hit 9.1%
3. Voters perceive the economy as poor
4. Incumbents are doing badly globally
5. Populism works, ie is popular
6. Massive rise in in illegal immigration
7. Harrius has not explained her flip flops from 2019
8. Cultural vibes shift right as reaction against wokeness, crime, Covid-19 response
9. Voters think economy was better under Trump
10. Democrats have less dominance with racial and ethnic minorities
11. Young men feel lost and shifting right
12. Biden sought to be President until he was 86, neutering concerns over Trump’s age
13. Harris inherited Biden’s campaign staff
14. Undecideds may break against a female candidate
15. Trust in media continues to fall which makes it hard for legitimate critiques of Trump to get through
16. Trump is a con man, and is effective at convincing people he’s on their side
17. Democrats are university elite who have poor instincts for public appeal
18. Democrats rely too much on January 6, which was terrible, but ultimately not successful
19. World has been more unstable in the last four years
20. Israel-Hamas war has split the Democratic base
21. More left leaning third party candidates than right leaning
22. Elon Musk is campaigning for Trump
23. The assassination attempts on Trump help him
24. Harris is running on vibes, not a clear vision

An excellent and insightful list.

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