Deepening Rift In India-Canada Diplomatic Relations – Analysis
The diplomatic rift between India and Canada has escalated again with accusations of Indian involvement in the assassination of a Sikh separatist leader in Canada taking a new turn. On November 2, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal condemned the Canadian claims of Indian involvement as ‘baseless’ and accused Canada of “deliberately spreading unfounded allegations” to tarnish India’s global image.
Statements from the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance—the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand—had already added to India’s frustration, viewing them as part of a coordinated effort to cast it in a negative light. In response, both countries moved to expel diplomats, while the Canadian media’s adversarial tone suggests that the diplomatic fallout may be heading toward an irreversible breakdown in relations.
According to the latest report, India lodged a formal protest against Canada, condemning accusations targeting its Home Minister Amit Shah. During a press briefing on Saturday, MEA spokesperson confirmed that India had summoned a Canadian High Commission representative to issue a Diplomatic Note in “the strongest terms of protest.” This response followed statements by Canada’s Deputy Minister David Morrison, who mentioned India’s Home Minister before the Canadian Standing Committee on Public Safety. India labelled these claims as “absurd and baseless,” accusing Canada of spreading false allegations internationally to damage India’s reputation. Jaiswal asserted that Canada’s actions confirmed India’s suspicions of a political agenda aimed at discrediting it on the global stage. India’s note warned Canada of “serious consequences for bilateral ties” if such accusations continued, viewing them as a calculated attempt to tarnish India’s image. This latest dispute adds strain to already tense relations between the two nations, as India expressed a firm stance against attempts to malign its officials.
Two senior Canadian officials reportedly admitted to leaking intelligence against India to the Washington Post, revealing accusations linking India’s government to violent acts in Canada. Deputy Foreign Minister Morrison alleged that a top Indian official orchestrated plots against Sikh separatists in Canada. India dismissed these allegations as a tactic to influence other nations.
The MEA official also condemned Canada’s surveillance of Indian consular officials, calling it a “flagrant violation of diplomatic conventions.” Jaiswal stated that Indian personnel in Canada had been under audio and video surveillance, with their communications intercepted, describing these actions as “harassment and intimidation” that hindered diplomatic practices. He emphasized that such actions worsened an already challenging environment for India’s diplomatic staff, marked by extremism and violence.
Earlier, MEA spokesperson directly criticized Prime Minister Trudeau’s ‘cavalier’ approach, holding him solely responsible for the current state of affairs. Jaiswal reiterated that Canada provided no evidence to support its serious accusations against India and its diplomats, asserting that the responsibility for the damage caused to India-Canada relations lies squarely with Trudeau.
Genesis of the Row
The origins of this conflict go back to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023. Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and head of a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, was a prominent supporter of the Khalistan movement, a Sikh separatist campaign advocating for an independent state in India’s Punjab region. While this movement is largely inactive in India, it has significant support among the Sikh diaspora in countries like Canada. India, however, views the Khalistan movement as a serious threat to its national security and has long pressured Western governments to crack down on separatist leaders in the diaspora, including Nijjar. After Nijjar was shot and killed outside his temple, Canada opened an investigation, which has since expanded into a full-blown diplomatic crisis.
In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly announced that his government was investigating ‘credible allegations’ that Indian agents were involved in Nijjar’s killing. This marked a low point in relations between Canada and India. India swiftly denied any involvement, calling the accusations ‘absurd’ and ‘preposterous.’ At the time, both countries began withdrawing diplomats and scaling back their diplomatic presence in each other’s capitals. India also froze some diplomatic services for Canadians, including the processing of visas.
The situation flared up again in May 2024 when Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals in connection with Nijjar’s murder. This further fuelled Canadian suspicions of Indian government involvement, as the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) suggested there may be links between the suspects and Indian intelligence agencies. Another Indian national was later arrested in connection with the killing, prompting Canada to officially accuse India of state-sponsored criminal activities on Canadian soil.
On 14 October, India’s Ministry of External Affairs received diplomatic communication from Canada indicating that Indian diplomats were being considered “persons of interest” in the ongoing investigation. In response, India strongly denied any involvement in Nijjar’s killing and accused Canada of smearing India’s reputation for political purposes. India announced that it would withdraw several diplomats and officials from its missions in Canada, citing concerns over their safety. Just hours later, Canada escalated the situation by expelling six Indian diplomats, including India’s high commissioner to Canada, and accusing Indian agents of engaging in activities that threaten public safety in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau further intensified the situation by stating that the RCMP had uncovered ‘clear and compelling evidence’ of Indian government agents’ involvement in a variety of illegal activities. These activities, Trudeau claimed, included clandestine information gathering, coercive behaviour aimed at South Asian Canadians, and involvement in over a dozen threatening and violent acts, including Nijjar’s murder. Trudeau emphasized that this evidence had been presented directly to Indian officials in an effort to seek cooperation in addressing these issues. However, India remained firm in its denials, saying that no concrete evidence had been shared with them and accusing Canada of pursuing a deliberate strategy to damage India’s international image.
This exchange of diplomatic expulsions has caused relations between the two countries to hit a new low. While the situation is currently cantered on the killing of Nijjar, it reflects broader tensions between the two countries over issues related to Sikh separatism and Canada’s handling of Khalistani groups.
Sikh separatism remains a particularly sensitive issue for India, which has urged countries like Canada, Britain, and the United States to take stronger action against Sikh separatist movements abroad. Indian authorities accuse these movements of promoting violence and terrorism against India, and they view Western governments’ leniency toward these groups as a major point of contention. India’s concerns are not without historical context. Sikh separatists were involved in significant unrest in India in the 1980s, including the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 and the bombing of Air India Flight 182 in 1985, which killed 329 people. In this context, Nijjar’s murder and Canada’s accusations against India have reopened old wounds, with both sides unwilling to back down.
Changing Dynamics of Bilateral Relations
Canada-India relations have experienced both cooperation and tensions, with recent developments highlighting ongoing challenges. Diplomatic ties, dating back to the 1940s, have seen significant collaboration in global affairs, economic aid, and security. However, a major rift occurred following India’s 1974 nuclear test, leading Canada to sever nuclear cooperation for decades. In the 1990s, India’s economic liberalization reignited interest from Canada, with renewed trade and diplomatic missions fostering closer ties. High-profile visits and initiatives like the 2011 ‘Year of India in Canada’ further strengthened relations, while counter-terrorism collaborations also played a key role, especially after the 1985 Air India bombing.
Recent years, however, have seen renewed tensions. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s 2018 state visit to India was overshadowed by a diplomatic controversy involving a convicted Sikh extremist, raising concerns about Canada’s handling of Sikh separatist movements. In 2019, Canada listed Sikh extremism as a top terror threat but later removed it from official reports, sparking criticism from India. Relations were further strained in 2020 when Trudeau expressed support for India’s farmer protests, leading the Indian government to accuse Canada of interfering in its internal affairs. Despite these challenges, both nations continue to engage on trade, nuclear energy, and security, reflecting a complex but enduring partnership.
While the diplomatic crisis gets underway, it has already begun to affect other areas of India-Canada relations. Trade negotiations between the two countries have been halted, and India has paused visa processing for Canadians, citing concerns over the safety of its mission staff. Despite these tensions, economic ties between India and Canada remain stable for now. Bilateral trade between the two countries actually grew slightly from $8.3 billion in 2022-23 to $8.4 billion in 2023-24. India’s imports from Canada increased during this period, while its exports to Canada saw a slight dip. These figures suggest that, at least for now, the economic relationship between the two nations has not been significantly affected by the diplomatic fallout.
Canada is a significant economic partner for India, ranking as the 18th-largest foreign investor with $3.31 billion in cumulative investments from 2020-21 to 2022-23, primarily focused on services and infrastructure, accounting for 0.5% of India’s total FDI. Key Canadian investors like the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) have substantial stakes in Indian companies, with CPPIB's investments reaching $14.8 billion by 2023, and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) investing $6 billion by the end of 2022. Major Indian companies, such as Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, and Infosys, have a strong presence in Canada. Canada also plays a crucial role in remittances to India, ranking among the top 10 sources, contributing to the $125 billion in global remittances India received in 2023. The Indian diaspora, consisting largely of professionals and skilled workers, sends regular remittances, while Indian students account for nearly 40% of international students in Canada, with 427,000 studying there in 2023. Indian immigration to Canada has surged, with a 326% increase from 32,828 in 2013 to 139,715 in 2023.
Trudeau’s domestic challenges
The diplomatic conflict has also placed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a politically precarious position at home. Trudeau has faced declining popularity in recent months, largely due to domestic issues such as rising inflation, a struggling healthcare system, and growing crime rates. A poll conducted recently showed that only 26% of Canadians view Trudeau as the best candidate for prime minister, significantly trailing behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Adding to Trudeau’s challenges, his key political ally, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP), recently withdrew its support for Trudeau’s minority liberal government, ahead of the general election scheduled for next year. Singh announced this decision in a video message, saying that the Liberals “have let people down” and that they “don’t deserve another chance from Canadians.”
While the withdrawal of NDP support complicates Trudeau’s position, it is unlikely that his government will fall immediately. To remain in power, Trudeau will need to seek support from other opposition lawmakers in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Poilievre has been pressuring Singh to call for early elections, suggesting that the NDP’s withdrawal of support could lead to a change in government. If early elections are called, the Conservatives are well-positioned to win, given the widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s handling of both domestic and foreign policy issues.
Meanwhile, nearly two dozen Liberal backbenchers urged Prime Minister Trudeau to step aside, fearing his declining popularity could lead to an electoral disaster. This appeal, according to the Guardian, followed a separate “code red” petition calling for a secret leadership vote among grassroots supporters. Despite this internal unrest, Trudeau, now in his ninth year as prime minister, appeared unfazed, asserting that he has the strong backing of most of the 153 Liberal MPs and will lead the party into the next election. However, analysts suggest that this growing dissent, the most serious challenge to his leadership yet, may have left its mark.
Amidst the escalating crisis, Trudeau’s handling of the situation has drawn attention from Canada’s allies, particularly the United States. Trudeau has reportedly shared evidence related to the accusations against India with the United States and other members of the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence-sharing alliance. The U.S. State Department emphasized that Canada’s allegations against India are “extremely serious” and urged India's cooperation. The UK also expressed support for Canada’s investigation, stressing respect for sovereignty and the rule of law. Similarly, Australia voiced concerns about the case and affirmed respect for Canada’s judicial process. New Zealand, which reacted first, highlighted the seriousness of the allegations if proven, urging adherence to the rule of law.
Challenges and Way Forward
Looking ahead, it remains unclear how the diplomatic crisis between India and Canada will evolve. India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that it “reserves the right to take further steps” in response to Canada’s accusations, though it has not yet outlined what those steps might be. For now, both countries appear to be digging in their heels, with neither side willing to back down. Experts warn that the longer this dispute drags on, the more difficult it will be for India and Canada to restore normal diplomatic relations.
The alleged involvement of Indian nationals in Nijjar’s killing has sparked renewed concerns about foreign interference in Canadian domestic affairs, particularly among the Sikh community, which makes up a significant portion of Canada’s population. The Indian diaspora in Canada is also worried about the worsening situation. Another major sector likely to be affected is student migration. Canada announced a 10% reduction in the intake cap for international student study permits for 2025, lowering the target from 485,000 in 2024 to 437,000. This decision is expected to have a negative impact on Indian students who plan to study and work in Canada.
Diplomacy often exists in a complex terrain between what one nation perceives as ‘right’ and another sees as ‘wrong.’ It rarely deals in absolutes, as what is deemed just or appropriate for one country may be considered unjust or harmful for another. The subjective nature of national interests, values, and cultural perspectives creates a reality where diplomats must grapple with a constantly shifting scenario of competing moralities and priorities. This makes diplomacy less about moral clarity and more about pragmatism, compromise, and the art of finding common ground without sacrificing essential interests.
In cases like the current India-Canada standoff, both nations firmly believe in the righteousness of their positions: Canada sees itself as protecting its sovereignty and public safety, while India views Canada’s accusations as politically motivated and harmful. For diplomacy to work in such situations, both sides often have to move beyond binary notions of right and wrong, and instead focus on managing tensions, finding areas of mutual benefit, or at least mitigating damage. In international relations, the pursuit of ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ is typically tempered by practical concerns like security, trade, and global standing. The challenge for diplomats lies in negotiating these grey areas, where rigid adherence to one side’s definition of right and wrong can easily lead to deadlock or conflict. This pragmatic approach underlines the need for flexibility and, at times, a willingness to accept that both sides can have valid concerns, even if they are fundamentally opposed.